{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b56d3a7-7088-4b61-bc6c-d6af85d00431", "symbol": "UKSR", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom IMI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF GBP dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.924, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.989, "architecture_energy": 94.058, "architecture_maturity": 19.001, "architecture_confidence": 67.957, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.65, "rotation_up": 87.09, "upward_expansion": 99.86, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.87, "downward_expansion": 21.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.835401, 23.445746, 22.869315, 22.566465 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.285, "trend_reference": 22.330791, "distance_from_trend": 0.087512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.433158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.994201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083321, "excess_performance": -0.033342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033658, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508946, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2569, "relative_activity": 0.329526, "balance": 1.508946, "dry_up": 0.42467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020811, "annualized_volatility": 0.153376, "from_high_reference": -0.001234, "from_low_reference": 0.282645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.330791, "fair_value_reference": 19.433158, "structural_low": 20.188999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.007552, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": 0.002257, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.059878, "worst_return": -0.096037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002943, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.000127, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.084595, "worst_return": -0.067225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065435, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006036, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118941, "worst_return": -0.116403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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19.241065, "relative_strength": -3.313156, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.24184, "energy": 79.435948, "activity_lines": [ 22.9176, 22.581673, 22.225514, 22.153338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.495001, "volume": 2967, "typical_volume": 11293.1, "trend": 22.156864, "fair_value": 19.286727, "relative_strength": -2.872138, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.604684, "energy": 86.644153, "activity_lines": [ 23.1746, 22.794528, 22.3668, 22.243072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.603001, "volume": 5673, "typical_volume": 9503.3, "trend": 22.213015, "fair_value": 19.331467, "relative_strength": -2.142775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.466886, "energy": 89.336904, "activity_lines": [ 23.390667, 22.995746, 22.516057, 22.336371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.766001, "volume": 2034, "typical_volume": 8252.55, "trend": 22.271532, "fair_value": 19.380421, "relative_strength": -2.147875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.039475, "energy": 89.790888, "activity_lines": [ 23.563734, 23.188037, 22.673429, 22.436564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.285, "volume": 2569, "typical_volume": 7796.05, "trend": 22.330791, "fair_value": 19.433158, "relative_strength": -0.994201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.989024, "energy": 94.057766, "activity_lines": [ 23.835401, 23.445746, 22.869315, 22.566465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }