{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b65e958-7f96-4384-849b-4b920ab8d689", "symbol": "CBTC", "name": "21Shares Bitcoin Core ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.286, "architecture_energy": 28.482, "architecture_maturity": 61.59, "architecture_confidence": 80.114, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.36, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 31.07, "downward_expansion": 60.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.422133, 12.268836, 12.8032, 13.0168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.542, "trend_reference": 13.544, "distance_from_trend": -0.073981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.273163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.377655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176818, "excess_performance": -0.279686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216329, "relative_activity": 2.548936, "balance": 0.869432, "dry_up": 1.330816, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063835, "annualized_volatility": 0.438458, "from_high_reference": -0.471582, "from_low_reference": 0.106973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.544, "fair_value_reference": 17.273163, "structural_low": 11.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044794, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.001503, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.088918, "worst_return": -0.223361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.189916, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.217893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189916, "worst_return": 0.189916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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13.823267, "fair_value": 17.367402, "relative_strength": -32.793004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.826433, "energy": 47.896335, "activity_lines": [ 12.210533, 12.308509, 12.938819, 13.182925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.392, "volume": 223139, "typical_volume": 75664.5, "trend": 13.685667, "fair_value": 17.319097, "relative_strength": -32.367279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.325097, "energy": 33.982244, "activity_lines": [ 12.2992, 12.253382, 12.861781, 13.090585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.542, "volume": 216329, "typical_volume": 84870.3, "trend": 13.544, "fair_value": 17.273163, "relative_strength": -31.377655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.285809, "energy": 28.481615, "activity_lines": [ 12.422133, 12.268836, 12.8032, 13.0168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }