{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b66dc2d-fb1c-43e1-a8ea-f1a55e0caedf", "symbol": "ADL", "name": "Archidply Decor Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.458, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.244, "architecture_energy": 9.39, "architecture_maturity": 32.111, "architecture_confidence": 83.589, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.13, "rotation_up": 38.47, "upward_expansion": 41.3, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 6.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.218667, 70.440182, 71.063428, 70.741354 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.760002, "trend_reference": 70.673, "distance_from_trend": 0.001231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.04218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.01759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010903, "excess_performance": 0.032806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001231, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167942, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6361, "relative_activity": 1.387244, "balance": 1.092497, "dry_up": 1.164251, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095425, "annualized_volatility": 0.393681, "from_high_reference": -0.356142, "from_low_reference": 0.407879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.673, "fair_value_reference": 85.04218, "structural_low": 50.259998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.009785, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.005725, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.094567, "worst_return": -0.1004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065625, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010511, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.198942, "worst_return": -0.3492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.172959, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062619, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.491952, "worst_return": -0.149919, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1155, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", 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"volume": 3548, "typical_volume": 4555.2, "trend": 71.156999, "fair_value": 85.149936, "relative_strength": -0.025478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.568198, "energy": 4.658831, "activity_lines": [ 70.667998, 70.335999, 70.931809, 70.738817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.330002, "volume": 4615, "typical_volume": 4500.75, "trend": 70.893666, "fair_value": 85.091154, "relative_strength": -4.980631, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.950821, "energy": 4.704485, "activity_lines": [ 71.142666, 70.387272, 71.027952, 70.749978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.760002, "volume": 6361, "typical_volume": 4585.35, "trend": 70.673, "fair_value": 85.04218, "relative_strength": -6.01759, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.244184, "energy": 9.390278, "activity_lines": [ 71.218667, 70.440182, 71.063428, 70.741354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }