{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7b68aa96-3675-4cf1-a66d-d5fb37338960",
    "symbol": "SWG",
    "name": "Shearwater Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 93.523,
    "architecture_energy": 96.939,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.82,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.6,
        "rotation_up": 89.8,
        "upward_expansion": 100.0,
        "deceleration": 39.0,
        "rotation_down": 8.02,
        "downward_expansion": 22.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.549667,
        0.490182,
        0.443895,
        0.431318
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.615,
    "trend_reference": 0.426433,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.442195,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.43783,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404654,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 19.727425,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.322581,
    "excess_performance": 0.271345,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.442195,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010442,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.404654,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.504371,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.197274,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.441434,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.322581,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.818138,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 521578,
      "relative_activity": 2.036203,
      "balance": 1.818138,
      "dry_up": 2.498441,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.079174,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.55979,
      "from_high_reference": -0.115108,
      "from_low_reference": 0.732394
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.426433,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.43783,
      "structural_low": 0.355,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.010526,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.026207,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.057471,
        "worst_return": -0.066148,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.086957,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.110433,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.413793,
        "worst_return": 0.077821,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.076087,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.151387,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.287938,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.206522,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.315482,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.114943,
        "worst_return": -0.521401,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011628,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.148148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.164835,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.133333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.308824,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.195402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.121212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.209091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.033708,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.069767,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.168831,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.351648,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.41,
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        "typical_volume": 79466.95,
        "trend": 0.655167,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 412283,
        "typical_volume": 190941.85,
        "trend": 0.414933,
        "fair_value": 0.434978,
        "relative_strength": -12.03086,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.171216,
        "energy": 32.852007,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.424333,
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          0.397105,
          0.403144
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.455,
        "volume": 66446,
        "typical_volume": 188240.45,
        "trend": 0.416267,
        "fair_value": 0.434978,
        "relative_strength": -11.017984,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.39334,
        "energy": 45.866355,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.439333,
          0.416091,
          0.402781,
          0.405729
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.62,
        "volume": 1559618,
        "typical_volume": 259925.45,
        "trend": 0.4221,
        "fair_value": 0.43626,
        "relative_strength": 20.247996,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 66.977983,
        "energy": 81.791041,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.503667,
          0.455727,
          0.424052,
          0.418873
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.615,
        "volume": 521578,
        "typical_volume": 256152.25,
        "trend": 0.426433,
        "fair_value": 0.43783,
        "relative_strength": 19.727425,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.523472,
        "energy": 96.938778,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.549667,
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          0.443895,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}