{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b69eb83-bba4-4928-9a63-30449ecee70f", "symbol": "TY", "name": "Tri-Continental Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.734, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.083, "architecture_energy": 41.656, "architecture_maturity": 61.674, "architecture_confidence": 58.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 45.97, "upward_expansion": 76.39, "deceleration": 70.0, "rotation_down": 25.57, "downward_expansion": 5.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.218667, 35.086076, 34.727657, 34.073265 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.73, "trend_reference": 33.31623, "distance_from_trend": 0.07245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.282047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309652, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.136801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111758, "excess_performance": -0.013867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.333167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104766, "relative_activity": 0.618979, "balance": 1.333167, "dry_up": 0.795787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032458, "annualized_volatility": 0.111349, "from_high_reference": -0.008877, "from_low_reference": 0.218546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.31623, "fair_value_reference": 27.282047, "structural_low": 29.825534, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009611, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000102, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.063621, "worst_return": -0.070804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.042297, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.005777, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.065516, "worst_return": -0.04107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.073487, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.012491, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.142376, "worst_return": -0.135717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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182987.05, "trend": 32.983395, "fair_value": 27.01318, "relative_strength": 0.731679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.015948, "energy": 47.449701, "activity_lines": [ 35.055333, 34.909535, 34.291117, 33.672714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.87, "volume": 162939, "typical_volume": 181746.35, "trend": 33.0893, "fair_value": 27.099488, "relative_strength": 0.928895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.10175, "energy": 43.298769, "activity_lines": [ 35.025333, 34.924732, 34.426723, 33.794431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.88, "volume": 128544, "typical_volume": 175564.6, "trend": 33.198765, "fair_value": 27.188528, "relative_strength": -0.123637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.706494, "energy": 38.416402, "activity_lines": [ 34.988, 34.930867, 34.546953, 33.90996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.73, "volume": 104766, "typical_volume": 169256.05, "trend": 33.31623, "fair_value": 27.282047, "relative_strength": -1.136801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.082748, "energy": 41.655535, "activity_lines": [ 35.218667, 35.086076, 34.727657, 34.073265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }