{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b69fda3-42c3-4789-9684-237d58b1b765", "symbol": "6246", "name": "Taiwan Thick-Film Ind. Corp", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.188, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.082, "architecture_energy": 77.358, "architecture_maturity": 18.751, "architecture_confidence": 77.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.23, "rotation_up": 8.61, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 80.47, "downward_expansion": 95.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.613333, 13.568182, 14.522143, 14.846344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 14.87, "distance_from_trend": -0.159381, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.251689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.47689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.441372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159381, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.404769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.751306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 544512, "relative_activity": 0.92989, "balance": 1.751306, "dry_up": 0.525464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125846, "annualized_volatility": 0.471647, "from_high_reference": -0.401914, "from_low_reference": 0.077586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.87, "fair_value_reference": 15.251689, "structural_low": 11.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026022, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.007624, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.052817, "worst_return": -0.052632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035211, "worst_return": -0.021672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.160606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.760563, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062462, 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"teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074349, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039711, "active": false 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15.87881, 15.537957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.85, "volume": 348998, "typical_volume": 691333.85, "trend": 15.025, "fair_value": 15.267507, "relative_strength": -32.433419, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.900125, "energy": 9.448956, "activity_lines": [ 15.123333, 15.367273, 15.694524, 15.46086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 286101, "typical_volume": 692663.05, "trend": 14.995, "fair_value": 15.265729, "relative_strength": -37.339943, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.538844, "energy": 41.169943, "activity_lines": [ 14.326667, 14.920909, 15.425, 15.330215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.55, "volume": 283607, "typical_volume": 610628.25, "trend": 14.953333, "fair_value": 15.262313, "relative_strength": -38.061042, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.814082, "energy": 58.80062, "activity_lines": [ 13.543333, 14.429091, 15.114048, 15.172473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 116555, "typical_volume": 570201.7, "trend": 14.901667, "fair_value": 15.256048, "relative_strength": -40.098463, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.056561, "energy": 67.682359, "activity_lines": [ 12.92, 13.954545, 14.799048, 15.00129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.5, "volume": 544512, "typical_volume": 585566.0, "trend": 14.87, "fair_value": 15.251689, "relative_strength": -40.47689, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.081564, "energy": 77.358075, "activity_lines": [ 12.613333, 13.568182, 14.522143, 14.846344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }