{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b6a7535-c8d6-4d60-8059-c2a3f9364070", "symbol": "002838", "name": "Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.944, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.141, "architecture_energy": 50.107, "architecture_maturity": 10.638, "architecture_confidence": 85.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.51, "rotation_up": 16.74, "upward_expansion": 25.12, "deceleration": 51.07, "rotation_down": 69.88, "downward_expansion": 50.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.976, 29.314438, 30.823326, 30.291303 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.389999, "trend_reference": 29.584225, "distance_from_trend": -0.107971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.757402, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.486141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.107891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096542, "excess_performance": -0.103942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.486141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.601174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40853014, "relative_activity": 1.369876, "balance": 0.568048, "dry_up": 1.52845, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133862, "annualized_volatility": 0.456617, "from_high_reference": -0.309095, "from_low_reference": 0.294897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.584225, "fair_value_reference": 17.757402, "structural_low": 23.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106109, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206554, "worst_return": 0.027551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.125408, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130378, "worst_return": -0.117857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.449345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.311242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.689028, "worst_return": -0.121429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": 3.45349, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.919204, "energy": 12.865222, "activity_lines": [ 31.871628, 32.74119, 32.051185, 30.914573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.530001, "volume": 45569295, "typical_volume": 27908799.75, "trend": 29.456225, "fair_value": 17.626829, "relative_strength": -3.377789, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.441849, "energy": 17.752232, "activity_lines": [ 29.810667, 31.473938, 31.670581, 30.730881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.76, "volume": 32031594, "typical_volume": 28763656.65, "trend": 29.507225, "fair_value": 17.68997, "relative_strength": -4.661838, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.760528, "energy": 36.411772, "activity_lines": [ 28.070667, 30.248338, 31.216359, 30.492415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.389999, "volume": 40853014, "typical_volume": 29822411.5, "trend": 29.584225, "fair_value": 17.757402, "relative_strength": -7.107891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.140922, "energy": 50.107169, "activity_lines": [ 26.976, 29.314438, 30.823326, 30.291303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }