{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b743ed1-268a-4bb2-8af9-e908a780aa1c", "symbol": "ANMOL", "name": "Anmol India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.002, "architecture_energy": 67.922, "architecture_maturity": 13.439, "architecture_confidence": 87.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.27, "rotation_up": 9.6, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 73.05, "downward_expansion": 90.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.323333, 10.667091, 11.031952, 11.132796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.33, "trend_reference": 11.389, "distance_from_trend": -0.092984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.72391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.627397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.537206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129005, "excess_performance": -0.085296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.627397, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.405186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106367, "relative_activity": 0.579842, "balance": 0.405186, "dry_up": 0.754187, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075657, "annualized_volatility": 0.46877, "from_high_reference": -0.4177, "from_low_reference": 0.229762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.389, "fair_value_reference": 27.72391, "structural_low": 8.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.035913, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.044638, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.274617, "worst_return": -0.272768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.13105, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.076649, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.134794, "worst_return": -0.305641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.219692, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.146143, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.553453, "worst_return": -0.471547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-06-06", 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"direction": -35.668899, "energy": 17.818081, "activity_lines": [ 11.386, 11.452909, 11.405524, 11.555355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.94, "volume": 103765, "typical_volume": 211732.05, "trend": 11.871333, "fair_value": 28.801667, "relative_strength": -16.196262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.427011, "energy": 25.534068, "activity_lines": [ 11.234667, 11.343636, 11.368381, 11.488516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.68, "volume": 99307, "typical_volume": 204864.5, "trend": 11.766333, "fair_value": 28.549615, "relative_strength": -17.874779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.26405, "energy": 47.175705, "activity_lines": [ 11.028, 11.203455, 11.311619, 11.411656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.14, "volume": 207631, "typical_volume": 201741.3, "trend": 11.642, "fair_value": 28.239936, "relative_strength": -19.518779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.077654, "energy": 62.449111, "activity_lines": [ 10.668, 10.988, 11.209095, 11.306731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.12, "volume": 140092, "typical_volume": 198316.15, "trend": 11.504, "fair_value": 27.965705, "relative_strength": -21.110169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.323574, "energy": 69.897886, "activity_lines": [ 10.426, 10.796727, 11.108762, 11.208538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.33, "volume": 106367, "typical_volume": 183441.5, "trend": 11.389, "fair_value": 27.72391, "relative_strength": -19.537206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.002303, "energy": 67.922318, "activity_lines": [ 10.323333, 10.667091, 11.031952, 11.132796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }