{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b7641ae-d86a-4210-aea8-b26c4ed73295", "symbol": "EDSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (D)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.729, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.731, "architecture_energy": 65.803, "architecture_maturity": 66.385, "architecture_confidence": 60.964, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 52.46, "upward_expansion": 82.81, "deceleration": 69.77, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 11.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.589999, 71.491089, 70.487952, 69.372348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.559998, "trend_reference": 68.332176, "distance_from_trend": 0.061872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.552664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124043, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.25719, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084766, "excess_performance": -0.086126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.002093, "balance": 1.119403, "dry_up": 0.465657, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01411, "annualized_volatility": 0.143938, "from_high_reference": -0.000964, "from_low_reference": 0.196965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.332176, "fair_value_reference": 64.552664, "structural_low": 60.619999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000288, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.017163, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 100.0789, "worst_return": -0.085637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017291, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.04706, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 99.502171, "worst_return": -0.035061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032728, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060638, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.09777, "worst_return": -0.063411, "sufficient": true }, { 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68.016996, "fair_value": 64.35097, "relative_strength": -6.520116, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.730594, "energy": 59.893446, "activity_lines": [ 71.249332, 71.134544, 69.829857, 68.881834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.239998, "volume": 1587, "typical_volume": 2456.0, "trend": 68.18003, "fair_value": 64.447666, "relative_strength": -6.47576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.999139, "energy": 50.059188, "activity_lines": [ 71.181999, 71.205271, 70.111142, 69.089769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.559998, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 2389.1, "trend": 68.332176, "fair_value": 64.552664, "relative_strength": -7.25719, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.730732, "energy": 65.802566, "activity_lines": [ 71.589999, 71.491089, 70.487952, 69.372348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }