{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b7bb38d-6ecd-40a8-9919-ecba603cf63c", "symbol": "BOY", "name": "Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.521, "architecture_energy": 93.17, "architecture_maturity": 34.262, "architecture_confidence": 81.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 83.53, "upward_expansion": 97.09, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 9.76, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.665333, 22.868364, 21.533906, 20.742568 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.610001, "trend_reference": 20.036137, "distance_from_trend": 0.228281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.274975, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.004892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.964317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.262891, "excess_performance": 0.198251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.228281, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.004892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.279066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.219643, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262891, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.230869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70729, "relative_activity": 1.338292, "balance": 2.230869, "dry_up": 0.753465, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041009, "annualized_volatility": 0.297786, "from_high_reference": -0.012043, "from_low_reference": 0.690654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.036137, "fair_value_reference": 12.274975, "structural_low": 16.834557, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.01299, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.030434, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.160284, "worst_return": -0.205531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.11914, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.079613, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.305561, "worst_return": -0.083505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.258554, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.132153, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.319917, "worst_return": -0.013657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.367467, "energy": 86.091698, "activity_lines": [ 22.163999, 21.378363, 20.384797, 19.938915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.85, "volume": 40093, "typical_volume": 62937.45, "trend": 19.726021, "fair_value": 12.037965, "relative_strength": 20.77899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.583796, "energy": 90.33427, "activity_lines": [ 22.446, 21.764909, 20.69585, 20.148465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.2, "volume": 22205, "typical_volume": 52846.6, "trend": 19.875375, "fair_value": 12.155817, "relative_strength": 24.120048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.811589, "energy": 92.863409, "activity_lines": [ 23.077333, 22.323909, 21.111439, 20.437109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.610001, "volume": 70729, "typical_volume": 52850.2, "trend": 20.036137, "fair_value": 12.274975, "relative_strength": 21.964317, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.520637, "energy": 93.170383, "activity_lines": [ 23.665333, 22.868364, 21.533906, 20.742568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }