{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b9e6bdd-c000-476b-8b91-53530a0e517b", "symbol": "PWO", "name": "PWO AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.346, "architecture_energy": 53.158, "architecture_maturity": 13.515, "architecture_confidence": 75.705, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.9, "rotation_up": 11.74, "upward_expansion": 8.6, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 69.26, "downward_expansion": 84.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.226666, 23.443636, 24.043743, 24.093971 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.799999, "trend_reference": 24.259411, "distance_from_trend": -0.018937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.639542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.660587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031529, "excess_performance": -0.096168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045132, "read": "Falling" 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21.948495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.017601, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.011774, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.285124, "worst_return": -0.042017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.021882, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.243698, "worst_return": -0.038866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051095, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.034429, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.310925, "worst_return": -0.031529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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24.0, 24.507499, 24.515539, 24.565142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 1331, "typical_volume": 1914.85, "trend": 24.862506, "fair_value": 25.737388, "relative_strength": -10.822515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.201957, "energy": 54.320284, "activity_lines": [ 23.826666, 24.332044, 24.468423, 24.488875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.0, "volume": 1358, "typical_volume": 1728.3, "trend": 24.716215, "fair_value": 25.715763, "relative_strength": -12.670856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.589027, "energy": 72.538126, "activity_lines": [ 23.48, 24.035455, 24.348806, 24.368714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 1553, "typical_volume": 1527.9, "trend": 24.550752, "fair_value": 25.685366, "relative_strength": -14.019827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.339579, "energy": 75.987345, "activity_lines": [ 23.213333, 23.734545, 24.213174, 24.245087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.8, "volume": 1420, "typical_volume": 1397.6, "trend": 24.391541, "fair_value": 25.658179, "relative_strength": -15.392809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.286255, "energy": 72.318364, "activity_lines": [ 23.04, 23.472727, 24.081527, 24.132135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 1653, "typical_volume": 1328.9, "trend": 24.259411, "fair_value": 25.639542, "relative_strength": -13.660587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.345718, "energy": 53.158397, "activity_lines": [ 23.226666, 23.443636, 24.043743, 24.093971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }