{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7baada01-59f2-4817-a604-930c2c1bf21c", "symbol": "A1ON34", "name": "Aon plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.65, "architecture_energy": 77.746, "architecture_maturity": 16.086, "architecture_confidence": 53.666, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.21, "rotation_up": 70.37, "upward_expansion": 64.96, "deceleration": 26.51, "rotation_down": 16.34, "downward_expansion": 27.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 447.322672, 441.949459, 426.107737, 423.586871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 446.570007, "trend_reference": 424.871825, "distance_from_trend": 0.05107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 449.480029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.104151, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008522, "excess_performance": 0.048526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136456, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.419048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.419048, "dry_up": 0.048387, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015286, "annualized_volatility": 0.239453, "from_high_reference": -0.113311, "from_low_reference": 0.168114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 424.871825, "fair_value_reference": 449.480029, "structural_low": 382.299988, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010628, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.010215, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.05259, "worst_return": -0.03717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.180874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097243, "worst_return": -0.076087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034137, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.079691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205231, "worst_return": -0.163478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -4.2e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 101, "typical_volume": 17.6, "trend": 427.323809, "fair_value": 447.793789, "relative_strength": -7.895603, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.507203, "energy": 61.351797, "activity_lines": [ 438.068671, 421.615456, 414.584235, 418.295177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 448.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 17.45, "trend": 426.746563, "fair_value": 448.138596, "relative_strength": -6.495043, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.074376, "energy": 76.109651, "activity_lines": [ 444.700669, 428.654002, 417.673886, 419.629124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 446.570007, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 17.3, "trend": 426.12165, "fair_value": 448.596725, "relative_strength": -6.307246, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.698037, "energy": 74.840171, "activity_lines": [ 447.808004, 434.254367, 420.542904, 420.908056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 446.570007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.1, "trend": 425.496738, "fair_value": 449.050033, "relative_strength": -7.673456, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.574325, "energy": 77.761228, "activity_lines": [ 448.682005, 438.686186, 423.385477, 422.227305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 446.570007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15.5, "trend": 424.871825, "fair_value": 449.480029, "relative_strength": -4.104151, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.649733, "energy": 77.74639, "activity_lines": [ 447.322672, 441.949459, 426.107737, 423.586871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }