{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bae6a07-f5f0-43ec-b39e-5a97e62e342a", "symbol": "SGS", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Short Goldman Sachs ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.156, "architecture_energy": 54.627, "architecture_maturity": 85.635, "architecture_confidence": 91.064, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.69, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 47.72, "downward_expansion": 80.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.074, 1.077218, 1.114843, 1.1704 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.077, "trend_reference": 1.229067, "distance_from_trend": -0.123725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.394538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.550226, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.102114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172811, "excess_performance": -0.224046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.550226, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172811, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.050256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.050256, "dry_up": 1.244779, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049995, "annualized_volatility": 0.243209, "from_high_reference": -0.375652, "from_low_reference": 0.108002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.229067, "fair_value_reference": 2.394538, "structural_low": 0.97202, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.009954, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.028667, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.205558, "worst_return": -0.157614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.11197, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.134279, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.091955, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.194114, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.241224, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.063038, "worst_return": -0.30491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.350353, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.400642, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.121612, "worst_return": -0.420758, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.35413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.229457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136327, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.2575, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.75, "trend": 4.12825, "fair_value": 4.365987, "relative_strength": 6.080369, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.403511, "energy": 84.680982, "activity_lines": [ 1.091133, 1.111836, 1.187671, 1.229385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 638.45, "trend": 1.2633, "fair_value": 2.468099, "relative_strength": -27.824762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.452499, "energy": 76.374149, "activity_lines": [ 1.09, 1.100473, 1.171176, 1.216989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.046, "volume": 3938, "typical_volume": 835.25, "trend": 1.253333, "fair_value": 2.449698, "relative_strength": -29.872318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.273396, "energy": 67.062241, "activity_lines": [ 1.0774, 1.086036, 1.152495, 1.20297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.051, "volume": 274, "typical_volume": 848.95, "trend": 1.243833, "fair_value": 2.431358, "relative_strength": -29.571187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.715297, "energy": 66.309013, "activity_lines": [ 1.067867, 1.076164, 1.135724, 1.189916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 849.95, "trend": 1.235667, "fair_value": 2.41366, "relative_strength": -26.247036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.60367, "energy": 59.855253, "activity_lines": [ 1.0744, 1.078236, 1.125448, 1.180637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.077, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 849.95, "trend": 1.229067, "fair_value": 2.394538, "relative_strength": -27.102114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.156324, "energy": 54.6272, "activity_lines": [ 1.074, 1.077218, 1.114843, 1.1704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }