{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bb60880-0828-4de8-8b51-de165760c809", "symbol": "002516", "name": "Kuangda Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.755, "architecture_energy": 54.901, "architecture_maturity": 17.759, "architecture_confidence": 82.843, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.89, "rotation_up": 12.24, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 44.19, "rotation_down": 66.69, "downward_expansion": 82.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.241333, 5.370909, 5.597835, 5.716597 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 5.957872, "distance_from_trend": -0.096993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.020441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.32576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204415, "excess_performance": -0.211815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81719650, "relative_activity": 1.099064, "balance": 0.660827, "dry_up": 1.159383, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079053, "annualized_volatility": 0.290531, "from_high_reference": -0.261551, "from_low_reference": 0.083451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.957872, "fair_value_reference": 5.020441, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.017893, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.021167, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.263852, "worst_return": -0.094527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043976, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.03576, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.422043, "worst_return": -0.092368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118534, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.109917, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.397297, "worst_return": -0.05308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 89270068, "typical_volume": 73281613.6, "trend": 6.038219, "fair_value": 5.009944, "relative_strength": -17.044895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.708765, "energy": 79.40347, "activity_lines": [ 5.214, 5.478182, 5.668642, 5.804572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.29, "volume": 65824587, "typical_volume": 73359113.2, "trend": 5.995394, "fair_value": 5.014873, "relative_strength": -10.496235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.32519, "energy": 73.381196, "activity_lines": [ 5.204, 5.409455, 5.62721, 5.7563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 81719650, "typical_volume": 74353845.0, "trend": 5.957872, "fair_value": 5.020441, "relative_strength": -13.32576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.754761, "energy": 54.900638, "activity_lines": [ 5.241333, 5.370909, 5.597835, 5.716597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }