{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc06801-d549-45fe-9ee6-4c0163e990db", "symbol": "ELBM", "name": "Electra Battery Materials Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.328, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.892, "architecture_energy": 33.96, "architecture_maturity": 76.047, "architecture_confidence": 91.369, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.03, "rotation_up": 23.77, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 52.79, "rotation_down": 47.34, "downward_expansion": 74.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.542673, 0.545856, 0.571709, 0.598172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.665137, "distance_from_trend": -0.09793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.460075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.589062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.902404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.520787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.589062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3025741, "relative_activity": 0.839768, "balance": 0.739061, "dry_up": 0.541085, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143204, "annualized_volatility": 0.579923, "from_high_reference": -0.931034, "from_low_reference": 0.235839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.665137, "fair_value_reference": 1.460075, "structural_low": 0.4855, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.042453, "positive_rate": 0.446809, "directional_follow_through": 0.553191, "median_excess_return": -0.046258, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.44086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.108058, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.107023, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.439685, "worst_return": -0.519475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.168993, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.217082, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.08026, "worst_return": -0.676708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -47.635403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.361728, "energy": 49.083993, "activity_lines": [ 0.5252, 0.550009, 0.57728, 0.614246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.514, "volume": 1794875, "typical_volume": 3700817.3, "trend": 0.67547, "fair_value": 1.478698, "relative_strength": -46.015412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.716192, "energy": 47.758773, "activity_lines": [ 0.519413, 0.539215, 0.570074, 0.603041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 3025741, "typical_volume": 3603067.3, "trend": 0.665137, "fair_value": 1.460075, "relative_strength": -38.902404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.891668, "energy": 33.960256, "activity_lines": [ 0.542673, 0.545856, 0.571709, 0.598172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }