{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc0e9aa-4835-43df-b6d3-795b1d5f141d", "symbol": "LUV", "name": "Southwest Airlines Co.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.378, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.862, "architecture_energy": 22.958, "architecture_maturity": 57.493, "architecture_confidence": 75.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.8, "rotation_up": 24.42, "upward_expansion": 61.17, "deceleration": 90.9, "rotation_down": 27.98, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.470668, 41.35579, 39.486399, 38.572767 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.360001, "trend_reference": 38.128729, "distance_from_trend": 0.058519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.955132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.372256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119303, "excess_performance": -0.29355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058519, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155174, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025814, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132, "relative_activity": 1.570494, "balance": 0.361796, "dry_up": 1.683522, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070426, "annualized_volatility": 0.471123, "from_high_reference": -0.127075, "from_low_reference": 0.63749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.128729, "fair_value_reference": 28.955132, "structural_low": 31.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019721, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.068382, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.166888, "worst_return": -0.105009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06575, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.109998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.302167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018915, "worst_return": -0.126387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109946, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.283455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041463, "active": false }, { 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82.918359, "activity_lines": [ 41.543197, 38.76217, 36.901479, 37.054516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 44.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 106.75, "trend": 37.255814, "fair_value": 28.579842, "relative_strength": 7.202247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.188972, "energy": 85.50537, "activity_lines": [ 42.903893, 40.085599, 37.594607, 37.521037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.470001, "volume": 702, "typical_volume": 127.5, "trend": 37.499035, "fair_value": 28.658759, "relative_strength": 4.703514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.995784, "energy": 82.49179, "activity_lines": [ 43.28, 40.912185, 38.128976, 37.857436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 138.65, "trend": 37.744477, "fair_value": 28.72786, "relative_strength": 6.072347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.267442, "energy": 79.506715, "activity_lines": [ 43.134001, 41.507069, 38.643926, 38.160724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.650002, "volume": 211, "typical_volume": 91.8, "trend": 37.931816, "fair_value": 28.806549, "relative_strength": 0.655293, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.752496, "energy": 50.467579, "activity_lines": [ 42.244001, 41.683859, 39.009646, 38.348177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 77.45, "trend": 38.057042, "fair_value": 28.880487, "relative_strength": -3.316747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.444237, "energy": 30.092643, "activity_lines": [ 40.918668, 41.445964, 39.201344, 38.424189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.360001, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 84.05, "trend": 38.128729, "fair_value": 28.955132, "relative_strength": -3.372256, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.861967, "energy": 22.957678, "activity_lines": [ 40.470668, 41.35579, 39.486399, 38.572767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }