{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc35d36-0f8e-4eaf-b312-d7ea53be2e6b", "symbol": "UC81", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.995, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.72, "architecture_energy": 22.618, "architecture_maturity": 19.04, "architecture_confidence": 69.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.96, "rotation_up": 15.0, "upward_expansion": 14.43, "deceleration": 70.32, "rotation_down": 59.86, "downward_expansion": 41.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 1030.1, 1033.931818, 1032.807143, 1032.505712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1028.75, "trend_reference": 1033.060348, "distance_from_trend": -0.004172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1065.314295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.402138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011545, "excess_performance": -0.06278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034323, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363981, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2310, "relative_activity": 0.091378, "balance": 1.363981, "dry_up": 1.367887, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008371, "annualized_volatility": 0.064553, "from_high_reference": -0.265904, "from_low_reference": 0.015498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1033.060348, "fair_value_reference": 1065.314295, "structural_low": 1013.049988, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00421, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003288, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.351036, "worst_return": -0.019063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004518, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022515, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.055503, "worst_return": -0.024393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000473, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05304, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04352, "worst_return": 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-0.013915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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"trend": 1034.661735, "fair_value": 1065.853355, "relative_strength": -7.639009, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.987741, "energy": 12.925137, "activity_lines": [ 1036.75, 1036.831818, 1033.338095, 1033.261115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1035.5, "volume": 36274, "typical_volume": 21704.1, "trend": 1034.452905, "fair_value": 1065.658051, "relative_strength": -8.059745, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.689784, "energy": 10.193723, "activity_lines": [ 1035.183333, 1036.8, 1033.605952, 1033.315197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1027.0, "volume": 96689, "typical_volume": 25475.15, "trend": 1033.8441, "fair_value": 1065.493369, "relative_strength": -9.586991, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.227252, "energy": 23.602687, "activity_lines": [ 1031.533333, 1035.213636, 1033.094048, 1032.834364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1028.75, "volume": 2310, "typical_volume": 25279.5, "trend": 1033.060348, "fair_value": 1065.314295, "relative_strength": -9.402138, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.720357, "energy": 22.618352, "activity_lines": [ 1030.1, 1033.931818, 1032.807143, 1032.505712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }