{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc36cb2-dd17-497e-8efd-a51097cbb988", "symbol": "UHERO", "name": "United Hero ETF", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.205, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.799, "architecture_energy": 15.509, "architecture_maturity": 17.606, "architecture_confidence": 59.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.2, "rotation_up": 38.41, "upward_expansion": 32.96, "deceleration": 45.3, "rotation_down": 18.24, "downward_expansion": 43.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.332, 8.167091, 8.095524, 8.143978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.44, "trend_reference": 8.332, "distance_from_trend": 0.012962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.247372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.991503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028769, "excess_performance": -0.221094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012962, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4305, "relative_activity": 0.665322, "balance": 0.711677, "dry_up": 0.889994, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054685, "annualized_volatility": 0.270016, "from_high_reference": -0.232029, "from_low_reference": 0.383607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.332, "fair_value_reference": 8.247372, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030848, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.028208, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.073487, "worst_return": -0.039846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065245, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.120436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.176678, "worst_return": -0.022409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152886, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25345, "worst_return": 0.021362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.116688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.061028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.03, "volume": 14609, "typical_volume": 36986.55, "trend": 7.397, "fair_value": 7.994625, "relative_strength": 0.257151, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.260103, "energy": 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"2026-05-22", "close": 7.94, "volume": 2399, "typical_volume": 13802.35, "trend": 8.882, "fair_value": 8.204808, "relative_strength": -28.869136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.665962, "energy": 28.00918, "activity_lines": [ 8.089333, 8.081818, 8.259095, 8.515591 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 7.98, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 11357.25, "trend": 8.813, "fair_value": 8.208718, "relative_strength": -29.363889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.340316, "energy": 42.130277, "activity_lines": [ 8.033333, 8.066727, 8.206476, 8.457398 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 7.94, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 11307.3, "trend": 8.744667, "fair_value": 8.213397, "relative_strength": -29.71445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.857732, "energy": 46.278019, "activity_lines": [ 7.984667, 8.046545, 8.156762, 8.401075 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 8.0, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 8583.9, "trend": 8.675, "fair_value": 8.216346, "relative_strength": -28.944419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.855023, "energy": 75.78921, "activity_lines": [ 7.979333, 8.036364, 8.121571, 8.353032 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 8.03, "volume": 11361, "typical_volume": 7801.9, "trend": 8.629667, "fair_value": 8.220128, "relative_strength": -26.986581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.904658, "energy": 70.695903, "activity_lines": [ 7.991333, 8.031818, 8.095857, 8.311419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.57, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 6881.95, "trend": 8.562, "fair_value": 8.220897, "relative_strength": -28.995783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.341157, "energy": 82.279762, "activity_lines": [ 7.855333, 7.941273, 8.03281, 8.243054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.07, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 6786.95, "trend": 8.514667, "fair_value": 8.225192, "relative_strength": -26.747408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.6864, "energy": 56.264423, "activity_lines": [ 7.910667, 7.949273, 8.022714, 8.211312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.0, "volume": 12800, "typical_volume": 5909.45, "trend": 8.465333, "fair_value": 8.227115, "relative_strength": -27.08008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.323845, "energy": 38.70727, "activity_lines": [ 7.936667, 7.948545, 8.008905, 8.178108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 11500, "typical_volume": 6213.8, "trend": 8.427333, "fair_value": 8.229423, "relative_strength": -27.154482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.219277, "energy": 34.01311, "activity_lines": [ 7.958667, 7.953091, 8.001286, 8.148086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.9, "volume": 3230, "typical_volume": 6200.3, "trend": 8.382667, "fair_value": 8.231795, "relative_strength": -27.561802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.166243, "energy": 27.125666, "activity_lines": [ 7.947333, 7.941455, 7.986952, 8.114065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 6325.3, "trend": 8.363667, "fair_value": 8.239936, "relative_strength": -18.069164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.370809, "energy": 17.895291, "activity_lines": [ 8.234667, 8.091818, 8.057857, 8.139054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.44, "volume": 4305, "typical_volume": 6470.55, "trend": 8.332, "fair_value": 8.247372, "relative_strength": -19.991503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.79868, "energy": 15.509263, "activity_lines": [ 8.332, 8.167091, 8.095524, 8.143978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }