{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc37eab-eafa-4fb3-8621-089b64ab15dc", "symbol": "ORT-B", "name": "Ortoma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.63, "architecture_energy": 39.632, "architecture_maturity": 25.666, "architecture_confidence": 86.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.03, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 8.02, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 55.04, "downward_expansion": 72.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.054, 8.319818, 8.37081, 8.672337 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.26, "trend_reference": 9.544889, "distance_from_trend": -0.239383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.192543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.085304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452075, "excess_performance": -0.51357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351354, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 599914, "relative_activity": 1.759456, "balance": 0.247915, "dry_up": 1.136956, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138483, "annualized_volatility": 0.842276, "from_high_reference": -0.720769, "from_low_reference": 0.066776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.544889, "fair_value_reference": 11.192543, "structural_low": 6.805555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055629, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023799, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.138021, "worst_return": -0.163399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061321, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.086426, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.596386, "worst_return": -0.077778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.408061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.373777, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.837349, "worst_return": -0.021226, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -41.404257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.518498, "energy": 21.424436, "activity_lines": [ 9.051333, 8.660909, 8.572825, 8.981849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.65, "volume": 586311, "typical_volume": 318856.55, "trend": 9.756222, "fair_value": 11.194979, "relative_strength": -48.786643, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.057356, "energy": 16.941208, "activity_lines": [ 8.596, 8.518364, 8.489365, 8.833383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.26, "volume": 599914, "typical_volume": 340965.6, "trend": 9.544889, "fair_value": 11.192543, "relative_strength": -51.085304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.630414, "energy": 39.631871, "activity_lines": [ 8.054, 8.319818, 8.37081, 8.672337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }