{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc483c5-1660-4622-8ffc-ba8bc3681caa", "symbol": "KSM-F17", "name": "Ksm Mutual Funds Limited - Ksm Euro Stoxx 50 Pr Ils 40a fund", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.703, "architecture_energy": 64.229, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.631, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 53.16, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.289333, 91.546364, 2287.963571, 3842.437957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 94.59, "trend_reference": 5630.494333, "distance_from_trend": -0.9832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6714.896346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.728006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988822, "excess_performance": -1.017722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.9832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.193349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.794468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.792769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21128, "relative_activity": 0.44387, "balance": 0.792769, "dry_up": 0.963608, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.708296, "annualized_volatility": 6.392529, "from_high_reference": -0.989322, "from_low_reference": 0.082761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5630.494333, "fair_value_reference": 6714.896346, "structural_low": 87.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015899, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.001556, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.119387, "worst_return": -0.076984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125834, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039737, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.199654, "worst_return": -0.012412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188913, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264184, "worst_return": -0.019019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.605793, "energy": 68.879048, "activity_lines": [ 90.476, 560.675091, 3189.902524, 4610.109527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.5, "volume": 14388, "typical_volume": 47308.7, "trend": 5907.541333, "fair_value": 6751.809231, "relative_strength": -98.783703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.155666, "energy": 68.134885, "activity_lines": [ 91.108667, 249.425273, 2719.684714, 4217.467075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.59, "volume": 21128, "typical_volume": 47599.5, "trend": 5630.494333, "fair_value": 6714.896346, "relative_strength": -98.728006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.703301, "energy": 64.229138, "activity_lines": [ 92.289333, 91.546364, 2287.963571, 3842.437957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }