{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bc4e030-fee5-42f3-8091-28a851e73728", "symbol": "1418", "name": "TongHwa Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.278, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.099, "architecture_energy": 34.141, "architecture_maturity": 15.749, "architecture_confidence": 92.617, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.02, "rotation_up": 21.61, "upward_expansion": 10.08, "deceleration": 38.03, "rotation_down": 51.49, "downward_expansion": 78.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.146667, 18.311818, 18.395714, 18.517312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 18.78, "distance_from_trend": -0.046858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.609936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.950045, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09596, "excess_performance": -0.537332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272651, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45260, "relative_activity": 0.408279, "balance": 1.051412, "dry_up": 0.83807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059948, "annualized_volatility": 0.192899, "from_high_reference": -0.275304, "from_low_reference": 0.056047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.78, "fair_value_reference": 24.609936, "structural_low": 16.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023368, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.010087, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.283186, "worst_return": -0.059896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004464, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40708, "worst_return": -0.136223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159245, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.130768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.651409, "worst_return": -0.126935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116099, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.164336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067708, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 21.15, "volume": 81249, "typical_volume": 288894.1, "trend": 16.775, "fair_value": 12.976731, "relative_strength": 23.501003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.918846, "energy": 12.643135, "activity_lines": [ 18.613334, 18.525455, 18.529286, 18.67914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.25, "volume": 70341, "typical_volume": 115814.15, "trend": 18.906667, "fair_value": 24.658333, "relative_strength": -32.844081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.544166, "energy": 14.585291, "activity_lines": [ 18.53, 18.490909, 18.500476, 18.633441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 85007, "typical_volume": 116027.85, "trend": 18.843333, "fair_value": 24.634615, "relative_strength": -34.336231, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.775301, "energy": 22.356262, "activity_lines": [ 18.35, 18.410909, 18.45381, 18.578172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.9, "volume": 45260, "typical_volume": 110855.6, "trend": 18.78, "fair_value": 24.609936, "relative_strength": -35.950045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.098985, "energy": 34.141064, "activity_lines": [ 18.146667, 18.311818, 18.395714, 18.517312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }