{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bcfcb78-c294-499f-9e06-6c904f755944", "symbol": "VATE", "name": "Innovate Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.259, "architecture_energy": 29.717, "architecture_maturity": 61.414, "architecture_confidence": 42.098, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.93, "rotation_up": 14.24, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 69.02, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 43.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.736, 11.774182, 12.779238, 11.597161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.11, "trend_reference": 9.833667, "distance_from_trend": 0.231484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.916199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.529775, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 41.271102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.280603, "excess_performance": 1.154978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.231484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.414679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.529775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088501, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.412711, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.280603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.82984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14616116, "relative_activity": 13.236097, "balance": 3.82984, "dry_up": 3.631967, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.330977, "annualized_volatility": 1.407, "from_high_reference": -0.431455, "from_low_reference": 2.229333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.833667, "fair_value_reference": 7.916199, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091704, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09939, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036207, "worst_return": -0.472119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.381671, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.438519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016086, "worst_return": -0.392491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.44504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.548876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.415313, "worst_return": -0.491468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.262512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.180583, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 316268.1, "trend": 9.259, "fair_value": 8.102097, "relative_strength": 21.867846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.595997, "energy": 29.833522, "activity_lines": [ 14.910667, 15.563273, 13.594333, 11.606602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.03, "volume": 559638, "typical_volume": 340593.35, "trend": 9.387333, "fair_value": 8.047802, "relative_strength": 11.889332, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.479187, "energy": 20.473228, "activity_lines": [ 12.532, 14.468182, 13.381762, 11.591828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.34, "volume": 350955, "typical_volume": 355866.9, "trend": 9.501333, "fair_value": 7.998699, "relative_strength": 3.570349, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.99192, "energy": 26.312053, "activity_lines": [ 10.436, 13.296727, 13.085714, 11.524258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.12, "volume": 515859, "typical_volume": 377219.65, "trend": 9.598667, "fair_value": 7.951392, "relative_strength": -0.658232, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.414531, "energy": 39.817613, "activity_lines": [ 9.048, 12.127455, 12.751762, 11.43514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.11, "volume": 14616116, "typical_volume": 1104261.8, "trend": 9.833667, "fair_value": 7.916199, "relative_strength": 41.271102, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.259278, "energy": 29.716518, "activity_lines": [ 9.736, 11.774182, 12.779238, 11.597161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }