{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bd1458c-ab19-4570-9ced-def162d7bf77", "symbol": "4040", "name": "Saudi Public Transport Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.687, "architecture_energy": 44.044, "architecture_maturity": 37.469, "architecture_confidence": 82.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.92, "rotation_up": 54.75, "upward_expansion": 77.96, "deceleration": 61.62, "rotation_down": 22.0, "downward_expansion": 4.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.516, 11.424182, 11.30681, 10.972946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.14, "trend_reference": 10.519667, "distance_from_trend": 0.154029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.047115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243478, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.784739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.269874, "excess_performance": 0.301704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.107847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.269874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.405849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5103726, "relative_activity": 1.250792, "balance": 1.405849, "dry_up": 0.691981, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052782, "annualized_volatility": 0.488302, "from_high_reference": -0.156944, "from_low_reference": 0.5175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.519667, "fair_value_reference": 16.047115, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013393, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.022704, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.046296, "worst_return": -0.152355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079138, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.101661, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.052478, "worst_return": -0.124654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126396, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.156985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013393, "worst_return": -0.229583, "sufficient": false }, 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10.341667, "fair_value": 16.181218, "relative_strength": 4.222681, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.594012, "energy": 48.035203, "activity_lines": [ 11.365333, 11.298909, 11.142143, 10.763398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.3, "volume": 2012724, "typical_volume": 3847761.5, "trend": 10.396, "fair_value": 16.130577, "relative_strength": 2.809749, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.886646, "energy": 41.816292, "activity_lines": [ 11.356667, 11.316364, 11.193762, 10.825226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.98, "volume": 1708131, "typical_volume": 3844552.65, "trend": 10.434333, "fair_value": 16.083013, "relative_strength": 2.263552, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.743555, "energy": 25.331475, "activity_lines": [ 11.237333, 11.264, 11.200952, 10.862903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.14, "volume": 5103726, "typical_volume": 4080394.9, "trend": 10.519667, "fair_value": 16.047115, "relative_strength": 10.784739, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.687296, "energy": 44.043596, "activity_lines": [ 11.516, 11.424182, 11.30681, 10.972946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }