{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bde9337-98cf-472a-b160-4c347d59ce03", "symbol": "603083", "name": "CIG Shanghai Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.05, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.282, "architecture_energy": 23.233, "architecture_maturity": 54.088, "architecture_confidence": 75.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.78, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 42.45, "deceleration": 87.52, "rotation_down": 47.14, "downward_expansion": 36.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.443334, 176.619091, 181.444038, 169.168551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.779999, "trend_reference": 152.400223, "distance_from_trend": 0.015615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.886296, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.21474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.076565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.363493, "excess_performance": 0.406697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.21474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.976691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.190766, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.669314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.363493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140072705, "relative_activity": 1.184176, "balance": 0.787466, "dry_up": 1.076388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223196, "annualized_volatility": 0.802233, "from_high_reference": -0.404417, "from_low_reference": 2.210641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.400223, "fair_value_reference": 69.886296, "structural_low": 98.689829, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08591, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.076957, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.218645, "worst_return": -0.205013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076368, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.084396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.175919, "worst_return": -0.311604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005796, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.849754, "worst_return": -0.189421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.51404, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.477911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.487574, "worst_return": -0.459493, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.272239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084244, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.017199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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130.25, "volume": 116544263, "typical_volume": 117821204.15, "trend": 151.713418, "fair_value": 69.234275, "relative_strength": 4.547912, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.810024, "energy": 20.466499, "activity_lines": [ 163.626001, 183.473818, 182.911651, 168.970707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.779999, "volume": 140072705, "typical_volume": 118287103.85, "trend": 152.400223, "fair_value": 69.886296, "relative_strength": 19.076565, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.282468, "energy": 23.232648, "activity_lines": [ 156.443334, 176.619091, 181.444038, 169.168551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }