{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7be080e6-e424-470f-a5f1-f25e36083b9b", "symbol": "600624", "name": "Shanghai Fudan Forward S&T Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.263, "architecture_energy": 42.733, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.005, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 25.6, "upward_expansion": 17.86, "deceleration": 66.61, "rotation_down": 42.17, "downward_expansion": 65.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.714667, 3.693273, 3.922095, 4.154043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.491, "distance_from_trend": -0.120463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.390641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.202135, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247619, "excess_performance": -0.204415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821856, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31573805, "relative_activity": 1.375136, "balance": 0.821856, "dry_up": 1.085206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086465, "annualized_volatility": 0.40335, "from_high_reference": -0.484334, "from_low_reference": 0.211656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.491, "fair_value_reference": 5.390641, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012982, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.002064, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.430034, "worst_return": -0.303103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.028331, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020888, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243043, "worst_return": -0.312839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008475, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057163, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.490683, "worst_return": -0.341513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.347197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005141, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.318087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139932, 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"typical_volume": 23337327.15, "trend": 4.587, "fair_value": 5.418846, "relative_strength": -32.170638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.480119, "energy": 62.456343, "activity_lines": [ 3.537333, 3.674545, 3.988381, 4.245828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 22657779, "typical_volume": 22621296.2, "trend": 4.535667, "fair_value": 5.403269, "relative_strength": -26.140818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.870884, "energy": 55.579326, "activity_lines": [ 3.606, 3.658364, 3.942476, 4.191828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 31573805, "typical_volume": 22960498.05, "trend": 4.491, "fair_value": 5.390641, "relative_strength": -23.202135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.262955, "energy": 42.733167, "activity_lines": [ 3.714667, 3.693273, 3.922095, 4.154043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }