{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7be7891e-469e-4d8b-9ecb-77255427b99b", "symbol": "XCHA", "name": "Xtrackers CSI300 Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.601, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.143, "architecture_energy": 20.213, "architecture_maturity": 63.73, "architecture_confidence": 78.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.85, "rotation_up": 21.04, "upward_expansion": 42.85, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 39.8, "downward_expansion": 32.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.065166, 21.256, 21.314548, 21.079306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.475, "trend_reference": 20.76625, "distance_from_trend": 0.03413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.05584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.579399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075094, "excess_performance": 0.023859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.268218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 261855, "relative_activity": 0.89041, "balance": 0.268218, "dry_up": 1.114643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031475, "annualized_volatility": 0.160543, "from_high_reference": -0.037945, "from_low_reference": 0.28979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.76625, "fair_value_reference": 16.05584, "structural_low": 18.950001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.011069, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.015676, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.041345, "worst_return": -0.075935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023001, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.025917, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051675, "worst_return": -0.080926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041269, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.156897, "worst_return": -0.101995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013297, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"volume": 162971, "typical_volume": 279122.15, "trend": 20.693583, "fair_value": 15.972186, "relative_strength": -0.795588, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.258374, "energy": 22.23058, "activity_lines": [ 21.129666, 21.370727, 21.293, 21.026038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.77, "volume": 618856, "typical_volume": 297608.9, "trend": 20.72575, "fair_value": 16.009173, "relative_strength": -3.417229, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.97875, "energy": 18.638115, "activity_lines": [ 20.941666, 21.244227, 21.271667, 21.030968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.475, "volume": 261855, "typical_volume": 294083.5, "trend": 20.76625, "fair_value": 16.05584, "relative_strength": -0.579399, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.142646, "energy": 20.213167, "activity_lines": [ 21.065166, 21.256, 21.314548, 21.079306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }