{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7be96155-5da4-4a6d-b78a-724f180c5566", "symbol": "000014", "name": "Shahe Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.122, "architecture_energy": 47.738, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.995, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.58, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 19.73, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.39, "downward_expansion": 72.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.606, 9.570727, 10.351952, 11.16428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.94, "trend_reference": 12.090667, "distance_from_trend": -0.177878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.988083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.779717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234796, "excess_performance": -0.242196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.466869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29191457, "relative_activity": 0.87603, "balance": 0.466869, "dry_up": 1.380205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094722, "annualized_volatility": 0.451463, "from_high_reference": -0.612022, "from_low_reference": 0.196149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.090667, "fair_value_reference": 11.988083, "structural_low": 8.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.033251, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.01505, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.226942, "worst_return": -0.191667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045037, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.022459, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.335689, "worst_return": -0.2418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126486, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011696, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.29733, "worst_return": -0.234796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -78.336046, "energy": 91.552624, "activity_lines": [ 9.467333, 10.010545, 11.230667, 11.910344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.37, "volume": 50896840, "typical_volume": 37033152.05, "trend": 12.497667, "fair_value": 12.037187, "relative_strength": -34.393238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.400382, "energy": 85.932722, "activity_lines": [ 9.376, 9.784182, 10.964238, 11.698774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.79, "volume": 49220340, "typical_volume": 37483753.9, "trend": 12.329333, "fair_value": 12.02071, "relative_strength": -38.229101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.920132, "energy": 77.226569, "activity_lines": [ 9.154, 9.520364, 10.66381, 11.45957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.02, "volume": 54658548, "typical_volume": 36698445.1, "trend": 12.207667, "fair_value": 12.007789, "relative_strength": -28.089794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.304422, "energy": 60.263491, "activity_lines": [ 9.418, 9.540545, 10.501381, 11.310581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.94, "volume": 29191457, "typical_volume": 33322449.9, "trend": 12.090667, "fair_value": 11.988083, "relative_strength": -31.779717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.12222, "energy": 47.738386, "activity_lines": [ 9.606, 9.570727, 10.351952, 11.16428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }