{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7be9b663-4338-4ef5-8b36-f5e9989f712c",
    "symbol": "SUMMAS",
    "name": "Summa Defence Oyj",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -72.955,
    "architecture_energy": 59.494,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.31,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.1,
        "rotation_up": 22.87,
        "upward_expansion": 9.66,
        "deceleration": 47.18,
        "rotation_down": 64.61,
        "downward_expansion": 87.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.449333,
        5.905818,
        7.265619,
        8.432215
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 4.83,
    "trend_reference": 10.267667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.529591,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 45.215801,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.893179,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -79.905283,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.678,
    "excess_performance": -0.739494,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.529591,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.370828,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.893179,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.204653,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.799053,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.16317,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.678,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.575823,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 85361,
      "relative_activity": 0.467538,
      "balance": 0.575823,
      "dry_up": 0.260573,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.397436,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.255639,
      "from_high_reference": -0.912816,
      "from_low_reference": 0.026567
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.267667,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.215801,
      "structural_low": 4.705,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": -0.059501,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036997,
        "regime_survival": 0.871795,
        "best_return": 0.252336,
        "worst_return": -0.465,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.160075,
        "positive_rate": 0.230769,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": -0.201982,
        "regime_survival": 0.769231,
        "best_return": 0.2624,
        "worst_return": -0.5625,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.189499,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.175203,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.024952,
        "worst_return": -0.631579,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.1456,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.272052,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.175,
        "worst_return": -0.593576,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-09-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.2218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2024-01-05",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.215971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "return": 0.03854,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.220974,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.2125,
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.109312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.122549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.258333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.454023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.872895,
        "active": true
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    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 246624.4,
        "trend": 11.820333,
        "fair_value": 46.615032,
        "relative_strength": -75.510008,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.627805,
        "energy": 51.555037,
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          6.438,
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          8.363238,
          9.609204
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.48,
        "volume": 40560,
        "typical_volume": 232733.1,
        "trend": 11.476333,
        "fair_value": 46.144391,
        "relative_strength": -78.171662,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.286873,
        "energy": 52.198737,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.106667,
          6.466364,
          7.992238,
          9.200151
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.51,
        "volume": 22284,
        "typical_volume": 227690.85,
        "trend": 10.766667,
        "fair_value": 45.68484,
        "relative_strength": -77.487691,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.893575,
        "energy": 52.009891,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.86,
          6.203636,
          7.648476,
          8.815226
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.83,
        "volume": 85361,
        "typical_volume": 182575.5,
        "trend": 10.267667,
        "fair_value": 45.215801,
        "relative_strength": -79.905283,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.955097,
        "energy": 59.494053,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.449333,
          5.905818,
          7.265619,
          8.432215
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}