{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bebdd25-5c38-459b-b801-1c249d0318cb", "symbol": "600066", "name": "Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.467, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.183, "architecture_energy": 25.908, "architecture_maturity": 64.83, "architecture_confidence": 59.301, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.9, "rotation_up": 59.77, "upward_expansion": 39.97, "deceleration": 44.2, "rotation_down": 14.3, "downward_expansion": 14.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.413334, 30.161637, 30.619457, 30.765883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.9, "trend_reference": 30.697562, "distance_from_trend": 0.03917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.372157, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.18041, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09493, "excess_performance": 0.138134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081804, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74156051, "relative_activity": 0.850749, "balance": 0.851833, "dry_up": 1.133244, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072008, "annualized_volatility": 0.363418, "from_high_reference": -0.121212, "from_low_reference": 0.35572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.697562, "fair_value_reference": 22.372157, "structural_low": 26.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.017718, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012313, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.215737, "worst_return": -0.107936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.052083, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037776, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.125498, "worst_return": -0.300366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.101974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.096876, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.78174, "worst_return": -0.212564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 22.109697, "relative_strength": 11.850497, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.065564, "energy": 16.18592, "activity_lines": [ 29.809333, 29.24, 30.448917, 30.583978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 107236926, "typical_volume": 87630404.25, "trend": 30.661943, "fair_value": 22.240377, "relative_strength": 12.687957, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.390087, "energy": 20.847562, "activity_lines": [ 30.841334, 29.734, 30.556333, 30.686009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.9, "volume": 74156051, "typical_volume": 87165559.5, "trend": 30.697562, "fair_value": 22.372157, "relative_strength": 8.18041, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.183254, "energy": 25.908016, "activity_lines": [ 31.413334, 30.161637, 30.619457, 30.765883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }