{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf03c2f-65eb-49f0-854a-70c33d29f135", "symbol": "5312", "name": "Formosa Optical Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.693, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.447, "architecture_energy": 18.085, "architecture_maturity": 16.485, "architecture_confidence": 58.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.19, "rotation_up": 29.01, "upward_expansion": 26.76, "deceleration": 40.79, "rotation_down": 39.54, "downward_expansion": 52.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.553336, 90.582414, 90.211799, 90.425739 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 89.300003, "trend_reference": 90.888217, "distance_from_trend": -0.017474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.296504, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.445771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024034, "excess_performance": -0.465406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117032, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.333811, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209605, "relative_activity": 0.557206, "balance": 1.333811, "dry_up": 2.365117, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052496, "annualized_volatility": 0.256879, "from_high_reference": -0.224759, "from_low_reference": 0.033934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.888217, "fair_value_reference": 93.296504, "structural_low": 86.369146, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004608, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.02061, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.065292, "worst_return": -0.040886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027543, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002945, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125862, "worst_return": -0.026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077503, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018278, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.572414, "worst_return": -0.006185, 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"energy": 25.761231, "activity_lines": [ 89.183526, 89.23279, 89.64548, 90.255185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.5, "volume": 1702404, "typical_volume": 318680.15, "trend": 91.393065, "fair_value": 92.944579, "relative_strength": -24.957886, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.936894, "energy": 32.955119, "activity_lines": [ 92.846666, 91.316342, 90.625562, 90.852258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.800003, "volume": 1210477, "typical_volume": 361742.8, "trend": 91.197389, "fair_value": 93.048084, "relative_strength": -31.484017, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.24059, "energy": 11.255144, "activity_lines": [ 91.960001, 91.059789, 90.456936, 90.684964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.900002, "volume": 436269, "typical_volume": 373600.15, "trend": 91.020591, "fair_value": 93.171124, "relative_strength": -31.660737, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.137575, "energy": 9.785617, "activity_lines": [ 91.166668, 90.794179, 90.310242, 90.536745 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 89.300003, "volume": 209605, "typical_volume": 376171.15, "trend": 90.888217, "fair_value": 93.296504, "relative_strength": -32.445771, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.44654, "energy": 18.085218, "activity_lines": [ 90.553336, 90.582414, 90.211799, 90.425739 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }