{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf09b75-c925-480b-9dbd-6a2386976211", "symbol": "PZZA", "name": "Papa John's International Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.596, "architecture_energy": 79.228, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.62, "rotation_up": 11.04, "upward_expansion": 18.23, "deceleration": 34.32, "rotation_down": 81.19, "downward_expansion": 91.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.818, 31.282, 32.596324, 32.957465 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.47, "trend_reference": 33.32459, "distance_from_trend": -0.265707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.536291, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.462626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.521529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.275121, "excess_performance": -0.462575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.265707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.462626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.435215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064724, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16756070, "relative_activity": 3.10493, "balance": 0.660755, "dry_up": 1.445373, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146681, "annualized_volatility": 0.565975, "from_high_reference": -0.54384, "from_low_reference": 0.026211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.32459, "fair_value_reference": 45.536291, "structural_low": 23.845, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.014576, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": -0.011282, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.294608, "worst_return": -0.233141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.063733, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024197, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.327054, "worst_return": -0.174954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08516, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.167305, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.153674, "worst_return": -0.227536, "sufficient": true 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"mixed", "direction": 2.459248, "energy": 5.835301, "activity_lines": [ 34.384667, 34.314225, 34.245649, 34.073674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.37, "volume": 4848381, "typical_volume": 5484828.85, "trend": 34.029784, "fair_value": 46.119616, "relative_strength": -27.487243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.157761, "energy": 31.409625, "activity_lines": [ 32.812667, 33.621273, 33.888255, 33.820603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.9, "volume": 5429132, "typical_volume": 4884887.8, "trend": 33.718855, "fair_value": 45.849457, "relative_strength": -28.353676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.764452, "energy": 52.648857, "activity_lines": [ 31.490667, 32.913455, 33.485661, 33.554166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.47, "volume": 16756070, "typical_volume": 5396600.7, "trend": 33.32459, "fair_value": 45.536291, "relative_strength": -43.521529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.596106, "energy": 79.227744, "activity_lines": [ 28.818, 31.282, 32.596324, 32.957465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }