{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf3cc2e-dabc-44d2-b606-2ff2a070f605", "symbol": "XDGI", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDGs UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.175, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.694, "architecture_energy": 37.259, "architecture_maturity": 65.132, "architecture_confidence": 78.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.31, "rotation_up": 29.51, "upward_expansion": 65.58, "deceleration": 88.22, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 26.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.566667, 31.742818, 31.578857, 30.995129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.75, "trend_reference": 30.1905, "distance_from_trend": 0.051655, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.0575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.712801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119732, "excess_performance": -0.05116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.38835, "balance": 4.0, "dry_up": 0.097087, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010781, "annualized_volatility": 0.104421, "from_high_reference": -0.034221, "from_low_reference": 0.184923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.1905, "fair_value_reference": 28.0575, "structural_low": 28.355, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032042, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.019044, "worst_return": -0.012124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04835, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.127491, "worst_return": -0.035347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.067261, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.067261, "worst_return": -0.067261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.037406, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.325076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037406, "worst_return": -0.037406, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005762, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008737, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.690001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 28.690001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -4.710204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.046564, "energy": 55.452639, "activity_lines": [ 31.780333, 31.923273, 31.35481, 30.686742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.05, "trend": 29.973333, "fair_value": 28.020032, "relative_strength": -4.450733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.945365, "energy": 45.924975, "activity_lines": [ 31.631, 31.858636, 31.435619, 30.790333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.05, "trend": 30.077333, "fair_value": 28.037885, "relative_strength": -4.935982, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.5048, "energy": 38.720972, "activity_lines": [ 31.532333, 31.781818, 31.501572, 30.887215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.75, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 5.15, "trend": 30.1905, "fair_value": 28.0575, "relative_strength": -6.712801, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.693692, "energy": 37.25862, "activity_lines": [ 31.566667, 31.742818, 31.578857, 30.995129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }