{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf3d9b7-f7a7-4b32-86ef-4f528a29d32a", "symbol": "300166", "name": "Business-intelligence of Oriental Nations Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.489, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.478, "architecture_energy": 46.408, "architecture_maturity": 4.357, "architecture_confidence": 57.586, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.39, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 23.54, "deceleration": 51.35, "rotation_down": 62.47, "downward_expansion": 48.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.686, 14.670909, 15.688619, 15.482344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.32, "trend_reference": 14.754667, "distance_from_trend": -0.02946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.482692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366061, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.18957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.323475, "excess_performance": 0.316075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366061, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.548747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071896, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.323475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 323933648, "relative_activity": 0.653652, "balance": 0.997024, "dry_up": 0.630578, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167275, "annualized_volatility": 0.883147, "from_high_reference": -0.352622, "from_low_reference": 0.525027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.754667, "fair_value_reference": 10.482692, "structural_low": 10.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010787, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.033778, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.170913, "worst_return": -0.061245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060048, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166127, "worst_return": 0.029116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036336, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.003342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054217, "worst_return": -0.320122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 1.076279, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.081708, "energy": 11.919697, "activity_lines": [ 15.476667, 16.087818, 16.396238, 15.674925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.99, "volume": 340398862, "typical_volume": 549148686.5, "trend": 14.508, "fair_value": 10.435128, "relative_strength": 1.262833, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.846754, "energy": 28.044418, "activity_lines": [ 14.366667, 15.413091, 16.113238, 15.584022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.23, "volume": 260352468, "typical_volume": 536065854.75, "trend": 14.618, "fair_value": 10.454231, "relative_strength": 4.498535, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.675735, "energy": 41.380346, "activity_lines": [ 13.717333, 14.888909, 15.851714, 15.50157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.32, "volume": 323933648, "typical_volume": 495575193.55, "trend": 14.754667, "fair_value": 10.482692, "relative_strength": 7.18957, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.47773, "energy": 46.408293, "activity_lines": [ 13.686, 14.670909, 15.688619, 15.482344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }