{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf40307-5970-4012-9458-324ed24a08b1", "symbol": "GCLE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.971, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.619, "architecture_energy": 67.825, "architecture_maturity": 9.595, "architecture_confidence": 73.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.39, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 31.01, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 74.35, "downward_expansion": 60.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.448001, 25.212455, 26.496024, 26.392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.860001, "trend_reference": 26.029833, "distance_from_trend": -0.044942, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.711256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.347972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014694, "excess_performance": -0.068189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257969, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.133391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 0.343613, "balance": 1.133391, "dry_up": 0.49695, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047605, "annualized_volatility": 0.245988, "from_high_reference": -0.1897, "from_low_reference": 0.3505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.029833, "fair_value_reference": 19.711256, "structural_low": 23.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017512, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017512, "worst_return": -0.017512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145235, "worst_return": -0.145235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.151876, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.151876, "worst_return": -0.151876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.008181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.231318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08807, 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"typical_volume": 8440.25, "trend": 25.756833, "fair_value": 19.722282, "relative_strength": -1.129041, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.925889, "energy": 31.752918, "activity_lines": [ 26.353334, 27.377182, 27.413738, 26.775462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.76, "volume": 696, "typical_volume": 1780.35, "trend": 25.850833, "fair_value": 19.716353, "relative_strength": -5.018416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.915982, "energy": 48.727234, "activity_lines": [ 25.696, 26.768727, 27.218643, 26.711151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.325001, "volume": 1260, "typical_volume": 1814.05, "trend": 25.919833, "fair_value": 19.708821, "relative_strength": -6.696964, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.325785, "energy": 64.91574, "activity_lines": [ 25.102334, 26.169728, 26.984595, 26.61271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.6, "volume": 915, "typical_volume": 1731.9, "trend": 25.961167, "fair_value": 19.702442, "relative_strength": -9.707852, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.67989, "energy": 75.918445, "activity_lines": [ 24.488, 25.520637, 26.679, 26.463043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.860001, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 1746.15, "trend": 26.029833, "fair_value": 19.711256, "relative_strength": -6.347972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.618761, "energy": 67.825389, "activity_lines": [ 24.448001, 25.212455, 26.496024, 26.392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }