{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bf912bd-9b5e-4287-9c4e-d5e129265975", "symbol": "SHE", "name": "Stonehorse Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.029, "architecture_energy": 21.474, "architecture_maturity": 79.078, "architecture_confidence": 95.726, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.35, "rotation_up": 31.56, "upward_expansion": 56.89, "deceleration": 86.07, "rotation_down": 25.17, "downward_expansion": 18.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011467, 0.011564, 0.011348, 0.010655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.009533, "distance_from_trend": 0.153846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.009417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168142, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.848069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.833333, "excess_performance": 0.769628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.248481, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191875, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.833333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.780518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2259327, "relative_activity": 0.33568, "balance": 1.780518, "dry_up": 0.412662, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13986, "annualized_volatility": 0.92868, "from_high_reference": -0.266667, "from_low_reference": 1.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009533, "fair_value_reference": 0.009417, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.042015, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140523, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.126485, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.069444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027246, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.642857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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0.008933, "fair_value": 0.009558, "relative_strength": 62.716106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.005679, "energy": 41.200915, "activity_lines": [ 0.0118, 0.011582, 0.010974, 0.010055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 6185895, "typical_volume": 10105427.75, "trend": 0.0091, "fair_value": 0.009538, "relative_strength": 48.224972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.540226, "energy": 41.733411, "activity_lines": [ 0.011867, 0.011709, 0.011155, 0.010253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 1575125, "typical_volume": 9947219.95, "trend": 0.009267, "fair_value": 0.0095, "relative_strength": 46.567982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.193178, "energy": 47.181914, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.0118, 0.011305, 0.01044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1089489, "typical_volume": 8390978.3, "trend": 0.0094, "fair_value": 0.009468, "relative_strength": 29.867821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.554814, "energy": 35.313357, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.011673, 0.011333, 0.010552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 2259327, "typical_volume": 6730590.8, "trend": 0.009533, "fair_value": 0.009417, "relative_strength": 24.848069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.029024, "energy": 21.473691, "activity_lines": [ 0.011467, 0.011564, 0.011348, 0.010655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }