{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7bfcffb9-59cf-4f16-be4d-cd266c2d801e", "symbol": "8310", "name": "Amana Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.764, "architecture_energy": 19.69, "architecture_maturity": 53.042, "architecture_confidence": 89.002, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.02, "rotation_up": 24.05, "upward_expansion": 54.93, "deceleration": 90.76, "rotation_down": 28.22, "downward_expansion": 18.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.971333, 7.126545, 6.920143, 6.662194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.98, "trend_reference": 6.389, "distance_from_trend": 0.092503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.709808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281139, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.953144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179054, "excess_performance": 0.210883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071677, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059531, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179054, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1377570, "relative_activity": 0.485574, "balance": 0.949914, "dry_up": 0.779517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100948, "annualized_volatility": 0.414231, "from_high_reference": -0.206818, "from_low_reference": 0.396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.389, "fair_value_reference": 9.709808, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065064, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.048568, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082892, "worst_return": -0.169381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.04886, "worst_return": -0.174468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.104786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017378, "worst_return": -0.22695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.028436, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.028436, "worst_return": -0.028436, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045614, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.366736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 11.6, "volume": 2344790, "typical_volume": 1548618.6, "trend": 10.907333, "fair_value": 35.067673, "relative_strength": 5.86764, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.025795, "energy": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.241971, "energy": 41.029776, "activity_lines": [ 7.254, 7.201818, 6.85719, 6.592839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.78, "volume": 2349745, "typical_volume": 2795227.9, "trend": 6.354333, "fair_value": 9.743269, "relative_strength": 5.043614, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.125037, "energy": 21.28145, "activity_lines": [ 7.078667, 7.149455, 6.882667, 6.621828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.98, "volume": 1377570, "typical_volume": 2836995.15, "trend": 6.389, "fair_value": 9.709808, "relative_strength": 5.953144, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.764384, "energy": 19.690346, "activity_lines": [ 6.971333, 7.126545, 6.920143, 6.662194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }