{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c002d2d-ee90-4ca8-9a3b-08e6f9514e7e", "symbol": "CGEO", "name": "Georgia Capital PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.195, "architecture_energy": 22.848, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.975, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.2, "rotation_up": 37.66, "upward_expansion": 62.83, "deceleration": 84.99, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 15.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 4176.0, 4178.727273, 4124.785714, 4018.354839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4400.0, "trend_reference": 3845.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.144195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1932.858974, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.276421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.353903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.351767, "excess_performance": 0.300531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.276421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.233539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.351767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.739198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306295, "relative_activity": 1.287605, "balance": 1.739198, "dry_up": 0.853882, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085268, "annualized_volatility": 0.412091, "from_high_reference": -0.06383, "from_low_reference": 0.986456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3845.5, "fair_value_reference": 1932.858974, "structural_low": 3235.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.017316, "positive_rate": 0.697674, "directional_follow_through": 0.697674, "median_excess_return": 0.022466, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.346264, "worst_return": -0.213953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.121429, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.158622, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.339928, "worst_return": -0.235105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.185263, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.135426, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.585448, "worst_return": -0.106572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.233177, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.180028, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.351946, "worst_return": -0.141176, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017173, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143201, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"direction": 31.748395, "energy": 16.714693, "activity_lines": [ 4105.333333, 4131.545455, 4087.761905, 3979.817204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4400.0, "volume": 306295, "typical_volume": 237879.65, "trend": 3845.5, "fair_value": 1932.858974, "relative_strength": 23.353903, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.194603, "energy": 22.84841, "activity_lines": [ 4176.0, 4178.727273, 4124.785714, 4018.354839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }