{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c043e7a-d7b1-4165-9069-8b830997a6f1", "symbol": "SIVE", "name": "Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.217, "architecture_energy": 23.418, "architecture_maturity": 65.51, "architecture_confidence": 74.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.13, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 42.77, "deceleration": 85.55, "rotation_down": 46.83, "downward_expansion": 36.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.544001, 46.115636, 51.848833, 44.111516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.400002, "trend_reference": 32.5864, "distance_from_trend": 0.239781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.917045, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.073794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 85.251829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 10.778426, "excess_performance": 10.716932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.239781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.191124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.073794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.736893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.852518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -4.292398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 10.778426, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748042, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48262687, "relative_activity": 0.588336, "balance": 0.748042, "dry_up": 0.495493, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.515746, "annualized_volatility": 1.728071, "from_high_reference": -0.62243, "from_low_reference": 13.175439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.5864, "fair_value_reference": 9.917045, "structural_low": 2.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.085304, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.109672, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.067206, "worst_return": -0.103402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.192906, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.221038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.192906, "worst_return": -0.192906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.235843, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.221787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.235843, "worst_return": -0.235843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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152.711502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.27448, "energy": 29.178402, "activity_lines": [ 62.423332, 68.325817, 55.377585, 43.086673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.48, "volume": 36649397, "typical_volume": 87948142.85, "trend": 29.587266, "fair_value": 9.394897, "relative_strength": 75.5057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.443578, "energy": 25.727972, "activity_lines": [ 49.874666, 62.131272, 54.653623, 43.401395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.32, "volume": 35664666, "typical_volume": 89266108.15, "trend": 30.491933, "fair_value": 9.550987, "relative_strength": 57.340087, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.525515, "energy": 24.879634, "activity_lines": [ 40.554, 55.726545, 53.578919, 43.513185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.74, "volume": 42009486, "typical_volume": 90742341.45, "trend": 31.373933, "fair_value": 9.704481, "relative_strength": 48.47864, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.428752, "energy": 26.467969, "activity_lines": [ 35.352, 49.659636, 52.316976, 43.529189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.400002, "volume": 48262687, "typical_volume": 82032484.65, "trend": 32.5864, "fair_value": 9.917045, "relative_strength": 85.251829, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.217102, "energy": 23.418151, "activity_lines": [ 35.544001, 46.115636, 51.848833, 44.111516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }