{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c046804-2e3f-4937-b65d-d75f3a045935", "symbol": "VSEC", "name": "VSE Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.859, "architecture_energy": 10.638, "architecture_maturity": 24.554, "architecture_confidence": 60.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.04, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 31.98, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 39.7, "downward_expansion": 22.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 204.34243, 207.812611, 201.060354, 199.641604 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 218.18, "trend_reference": 200.438044, "distance_from_trend": 0.088516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.829173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.776288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.677125, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09144, "excess_performance": -0.096013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.776288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016771, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.37726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2593903, "relative_activity": 1.056543, "balance": 1.37726, "dry_up": 0.87986, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112587, "annualized_volatility": 0.653858, "from_high_reference": -0.092588, "from_low_reference": 0.432443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.438044, "fair_value_reference": 122.829173, "structural_low": 156.215, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084337, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038006, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.284548, "worst_return": -0.111251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.137382, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.051561, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.310632, "worst_return": -0.138281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.294317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.168245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301149, "worst_return": -0.16087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 211.196447, "volume": 2503225, "typical_volume": 2901283.85, "trend": 198.095802, "fair_value": 118.997477, "relative_strength": -0.962957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.489208, "energy": 55.411106, "activity_lines": [ 218.583492, 206.590336, 198.609737, 198.912219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 199.61, "volume": 2531664, "typical_volume": 2896330.95, "trend": 198.894846, "fair_value": 119.947521, "relative_strength": -2.667521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.77697, "energy": 35.462357, "activity_lines": [ 213.224077, 206.905041, 198.872994, 199.009909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.42, "volume": 1827629, "typical_volume": 2877262.4, "trend": 199.431337, "fair_value": 120.864177, "relative_strength": -3.440435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.267343, "energy": 10.831335, "activity_lines": [ 206.229587, 206.338655, 198.867484, 198.785726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 194.39, "volume": 1687321, "typical_volume": 2780485.7, "trend": 199.87255, "fair_value": 121.770996, "relative_strength": -4.585371, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.097446, "energy": 7.883206, "activity_lines": [ 200.471269, 205.117542, 198.829959, 198.460478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 218.18, "volume": 2593903, "typical_volume": 2455084.2, "trend": 200.438044, "fair_value": 122.829173, "relative_strength": 1.677125, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.859269, "energy": 10.637653, "activity_lines": [ 204.34243, 207.812611, 201.060354, 199.641604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }