{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c0b4a8a-345f-453d-9a52-adf2fa55884e", "symbol": "HER", "name": "Hera S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.527, "architecture_energy": 19.857, "architecture_maturity": 30.412, "architecture_confidence": 53.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.53, "rotation_up": 43.99, "upward_expansion": 35.59, "deceleration": 44.2, "rotation_down": 18.23, "downward_expansion": 43.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.860267, 3.817021, 3.793662, 3.852333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.866, "trend_reference": 3.946526, "distance_from_trend": -0.020404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.470611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.910638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082146, "excess_performance": -0.253038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002233, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22152182, "relative_activity": 1.720005, "balance": 0.730623, "dry_up": 1.702948, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030444, "annualized_volatility": 0.197114, "from_high_reference": -0.131236, "from_low_reference": 0.078683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.946526, "fair_value_reference": 3.470611, "structural_low": 3.58844, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009083, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.005128, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.11747, "worst_return": -0.180643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066097, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.033457, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.168359, "worst_return": -0.174947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.184785, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245584, "worst_return": -0.200616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218682, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345328, "worst_return": -0.25385, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029499, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026221, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.412744, "volume": 8735770, "typical_volume": 13043365.25, "trend": 2.423375, "fair_value": 2.616441, "relative_strength": -4.509543, "stage": 2, "regime": 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3.865467, 3.789609, 3.795708, 3.869455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.788, "volume": 25460047, "typical_volume": 12615618.2, "trend": 3.955659, "fair_value": 3.461674, "relative_strength": -15.486573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.760512, "energy": 21.921524, "activity_lines": [ 3.853867, 3.79661, 3.79029, 3.858118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.866, "volume": 22152182, "typical_volume": 12879138.4, "trend": 3.946526, "fair_value": 3.470611, "relative_strength": -15.910638, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.526698, "energy": 19.857327, "activity_lines": [ 3.860267, 3.817021, 3.793662, 3.852333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }