{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c0cc831-ffc5-44f3-8ddc-d2e66857a9a5", "symbol": "XS2L", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Leveraged Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.763, "architecture_energy": 58.78, "architecture_maturity": 84.921, "architecture_confidence": 67.509, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 51.11, "upward_expansion": 80.16, "deceleration": 71.07, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 9.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 306.116667, 303.973639, 298.13105, 287.124045 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 320.079987, "trend_reference": 274.562668, "distance_from_trend": 0.165781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 209.640962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.283324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.26669, "excess_performance": 0.095799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052833, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26669, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7477, "relative_activity": 1.344845, "balance": 1.031674, "dry_up": 1.362786, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035335, "annualized_volatility": 0.242957, "from_high_reference": -0.007381, "from_low_reference": 0.444796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 274.562668, "fair_value_reference": 209.640962, "structural_low": 221.589996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.023634, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": 0.007751, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.133202, "worst_return": -0.133427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.050641, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.007249, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.159386, "worst_return": -0.166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.129415, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.027629, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.310174, "worst_return": -0.239424, "sufficient": true }, { 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284.866907, 275.694496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 308.25, "volume": 2926, "typical_volume": 5704.8, "trend": 268.035667, "fair_value": 205.294167, "relative_strength": 4.054341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.609195, "energy": 66.187091, "activity_lines": [ 302.922005, 301.598186, 288.334431, 278.413507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 301.320007, "volume": 9801, "typical_volume": 5944.0, "trend": 269.689668, "fair_value": 206.360321, "relative_strength": 3.016448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.609123, "energy": 60.349333, "activity_lines": [ 302.914673, 301.880732, 290.87467, 280.560884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 300.220001, "volume": 5445, "typical_volume": 5629.75, "trend": 271.194334, "fair_value": 207.399167, "relative_strength": 2.686829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.136292, "energy": 58.337296, "activity_lines": [ 302.242672, 301.72455, 293.068241, 282.530583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 294.950012, "volume": 7584, "typical_volume": 5489.5, "trend": 272.637002, "fair_value": 208.42859, "relative_strength": 0.086307, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.248334, "energy": 44.117545, "activity_lines": [ 299.998673, 300.514188, 294.527956, 284.063207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 320.079987, "volume": 7477, "typical_volume": 5559.75, "trend": 274.562668, "fair_value": 209.640962, "relative_strength": 5.283324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.763197, "energy": 58.779683, "activity_lines": [ 306.116667, 303.973639, 298.13105, 287.124045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }