{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c112ba9-542f-42f0-b63a-80f8f9208bc2", "symbol": "EWQ", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI FRANCE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.15, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.544, "architecture_energy": 70.423, "architecture_maturity": 19.89, "architecture_confidence": 74.821, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.85, "rotation_up": 66.24, "upward_expansion": 85.46, "deceleration": 48.54, "rotation_down": 13.37, "downward_expansion": 14.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.391333, 45.917498, 45.334504, 44.916937 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.9, "trend_reference": 44.615357, "distance_from_trend": 0.073621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.13697, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223907, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.918905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056863, "excess_performance": -0.068762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055976, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.440498, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1939109, "relative_activity": 1.046458, "balance": 1.440498, "dry_up": 0.772226, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027463, "annualized_volatility": 0.203294, "from_high_reference": -0.001459, "from_low_reference": 0.179376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.615357, "fair_value_reference": 39.13697, "structural_low": 40.614714, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008461, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.007842, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.118634, "worst_return": -0.088174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032108, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.02474, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.090634, "worst_return": -0.136191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057717, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.145286, "worst_return": -0.040945, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 45.04, "volume": 1801708, "typical_volume": 2150416.9, "trend": 44.366409, "fair_value": 38.863607, "relative_strength": -7.064513, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.02562, "energy": 43.459424, "activity_lines": [ 45.366514, 45.102067, 44.603245, 44.477188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.14, "volume": 1148690, "typical_volume": 2136373.9, "trend": 44.408828, "fair_value": 38.92146, "relative_strength": -5.213358, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.782373, "energy": 27.757777, "activity_lines": [ 45.271333, 45.158588, 44.695532, 44.527097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.95, "volume": 1109755, "typical_volume": 2017976.9, "trend": 44.436124, "fair_value": 38.979503, "relative_strength": -4.867004, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.386199, "energy": 22.89441, "activity_lines": [ 45.139333, 45.172522, 44.777432, 44.562011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.55, "volume": 1526250, "typical_volume": 1937228.45, "trend": 44.51252, "fair_value": 39.054379, "relative_strength": -2.456142, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.10865, "energy": 36.129609, "activity_lines": [ 45.598, 45.444361, 45.002977, 44.69839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.9, "volume": 1939109, "typical_volume": 1853021.2, "trend": 44.615357, "fair_value": 39.13697, "relative_strength": -2.918905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.543749, "energy": 70.423048, "activity_lines": [ 46.391333, 45.917498, 45.334504, 44.916937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }