{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c11a596-0787-4e1f-b7e9-428ed687bc89", "symbol": "ILCG", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.772, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.411, "architecture_energy": 29.903, "architecture_maturity": 53.48, "architecture_confidence": 86.039, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.61, "rotation_up": 34.08, "upward_expansion": 63.16, "deceleration": 93.53, "rotation_down": 28.02, "downward_expansion": 12.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.147333, 114.123749, 113.739147, 111.041255 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 117.72, "trend_reference": 107.925847, "distance_from_trend": 0.090749, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 87.840563, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.764625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154685, "excess_performance": 0.02906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340155, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154685, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.006512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256556, "relative_activity": 0.655941, "balance": 3.006512, "dry_up": 0.663278, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041147, "annualized_volatility": 0.211389, "from_high_reference": -0.022857, "from_low_reference": 0.290973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.925847, "fair_value_reference": 87.840563, "structural_low": 91.187062, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007616, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.001715, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.093797, "worst_return": -0.12723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063186, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001055, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.177934, "worst_return": -0.157845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.143501, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.028474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209931, "worst_return": -0.051208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.149371, "energy": 28.796707, "activity_lines": [ 114.204, 114.6454, 112.55062, 109.796403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 111.61, "volume": 270239, "typical_volume": 397287.25, "trend": 107.25435, "fair_value": 87.148507, "relative_strength": -1.751659, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.093913, "energy": 24.737857, "activity_lines": [ 113.228667, 114.025253, 112.80831, 110.090717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.78, "volume": 217990, "typical_volume": 391381.85, "trend": 107.512311, "fair_value": 87.473445, "relative_strength": -2.549196, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.960892, "energy": 18.735658, "activity_lines": [ 112.678667, 113.500705, 113.023641, 110.382694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.72, "volume": 256556, "typical_volume": 391126.4, "trend": 107.925847, "fair_value": 87.840563, "relative_strength": -0.764625, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.410546, "energy": 29.90271, "activity_lines": [ 114.147333, 114.123749, 113.739147, 111.041255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }