{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c172ae4-3173-4416-81ca-38918cf58598", "symbol": "DAXX", "name": "Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.558, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.52, "architecture_energy": 69.868, "architecture_maturity": 15.545, "architecture_confidence": 76.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.6, "rotation_up": 63.64, "upward_expansion": 85.38, "deceleration": 49.34, "rotation_down": 15.87, "downward_expansion": 14.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.976665, 230.860908, 227.825952, 225.403978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 239.5, "trend_reference": 223.975, "distance_from_trend": 0.069316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.901859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248034, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.686722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060908, "excess_performance": -0.109984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.765446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16959, "relative_activity": 0.539662, "balance": 3.765446, "dry_up": 0.399027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024972, "annualized_volatility": 0.183292, "from_high_reference": -0.004158, "from_low_reference": 0.1999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 223.975, "fair_value_reference": 191.901859, "structural_low": 199.600006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001357, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.003672, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.08668, "worst_return": -0.114502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018724, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.019192, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123256, "worst_return": -0.071514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053628, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.047227, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.172895, "worst_return": -0.011477, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }