{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7c174051-fdc6-491d-9fed-4e8bcabc1e0a",
    "symbol": "MWET4",
    "name": "Wetzel S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 69.555,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -55.612,
    "architecture_energy": 46.886,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.109,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.333,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.9,
        "rotation_up": 34.65,
        "upward_expansion": 17.44,
        "deceleration": 49.47,
        "rotation_down": 43.35,
        "downward_expansion": 47.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.029333,
        14.207455,
        14.68619,
        15.143505
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 12.0,
    "trend_reference": 14.66,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.181446,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.485128,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144478,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.949035,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.174168,
    "excess_performance": 0.231217,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.181446,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129343,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.144478,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.213413,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06949,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035958,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.174168,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.277778,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1800,
      "relative_activity": 1.565217,
      "balance": 0.277778,
      "dry_up": 0.478261,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06891,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.895471,
      "from_high_reference": -0.523242,
      "from_low_reference": 0.463415
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.66,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.485128,
      "structural_low": 9.74,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.000979,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011923,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.068022,
        "worst_return": -0.148457,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.039766,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.062405,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.245504,
        "worst_return": -0.165972,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.065602,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.240126,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.016419,
        "worst_return": -0.147623,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.089106,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.287339,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.000834,
        "worst_return": -0.179046,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.123913,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.11229,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.12037,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.136616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.148457,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.017308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.042885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.611215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.274222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.065294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 9.67,
        "volume": 20000,
        "typical_volume": 12010.0,
        "trend": 10.509,
        "fair_value": 11.948782,
        "relative_strength": -10.504513,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.078679,
        "energy": 39.688529,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.021333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "typical_volume": 12150.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
        "close": 9.7,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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          10.212559
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 8.57,
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-20",
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        "date": "2024-01-19",
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          16.187333,
          14.348968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 13.8,
        "volume": 3200,
        "typical_volume": 17410.0,
        "trend": 12.511,
        "fair_value": 10.162821,
        "relative_strength": -3.353257,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.039932,
        "energy": 27.570272,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.394667,
          18.167273,
          16.191143,
          14.44028
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 13.8,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 17330.0,
        "trend": 12.645,
        "fair_value": 10.186987,
        "relative_strength": 1.126301,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.568892,
        "energy": 29.23585,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.190667,
          17.293636,
          16.171857,
          14.523441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 14.9,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 17315.0,
        "trend": 12.812333,
        "fair_value": 10.217115,
        "relative_strength": 10.581399,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.201186,
        "energy": 26.704335,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.762,
          16.623636,
          16.230667,
          14.668925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 14.9,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 17005.0,
        "trend": 12.981,
        "fair_value": 10.248397,
        "relative_strength": 12.411723,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.133487,
        "energy": 22.00117,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.673333,
          15.996182,
          16.259619,
          14.803613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 14.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 16980.0,
        "trend": 13.114333,
        "fair_value": 10.269423,
        "relative_strength": 8.948411,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -0.068581,
        "energy": 18.497598,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.38,
          15.343273,
          16.176238,
          14.869355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 14.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 16805.0,
        "trend": 13.255667,
        "fair_value": 10.287115,
        "relative_strength": 7.796308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -2.346223,
        "energy": 18.121357,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.286667,
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          14.926495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 14.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 16425.0,
        "trend": 13.407,
        "fair_value": 10.308269,
        "relative_strength": 9.675161,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -4.248086,
        "energy": 32.440877,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.18,
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          15.932095,
          14.974516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3760.0,
        "trend": 13.573,
        "fair_value": 10.330577,
        "relative_strength": 10.610001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.792554,
        "energy": 36.914565,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.22,
          14.393273,
          15.818143,
          15.043742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3645.0,
        "trend": 13.738333,
        "fair_value": 10.354167,
        "relative_strength": 10.15908,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.931462,
        "energy": 36.343444,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.288,
          14.349455,
          15.683905,
          15.102258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3615.0,
        "trend": 13.934667,
        "fair_value": 10.382756,
        "relative_strength": 8.234023,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.694359,
        "energy": 35.892783,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.384,
          14.339273,
          15.529571,
          15.150108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3360.0,
        "trend": 14.119,
        "fair_value": 10.408782,
        "relative_strength": 11.029936,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.510911,
        "energy": 19.647092,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.448,
          14.374909,
          15.357238,
          15.18529
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3025.0,
        "trend": 14.328333,
        "fair_value": 10.4375,
        "relative_strength": 10.967796,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.645736,
        "energy": 22.905759,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.48,
          14.398182,
          15.166905,
          15.208581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.89,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 2095.0,
        "trend": 14.570333,
        "fair_value": 10.473397,
        "relative_strength": 18.847003,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.212005,
        "energy": 23.785395,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.95,
          14.665455,
          15.108571,
          15.309333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.0,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 1150.0,
        "trend": 14.66,
        "fair_value": 10.485128,
        "relative_strength": -6.949035,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -55.611776,
        "energy": 46.886227,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.029333,
          14.207455,
          14.68619,
          15.143505
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}