{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c185115-5b1a-4460-80c1-6824f437279e", "symbol": "TPA", "name": "Thai Poly Acrylic Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.005, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.475, "architecture_energy": 6.817, "architecture_maturity": 19.502, "architecture_confidence": 59.425, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.84, "rotation_up": 32.73, "upward_expansion": 61.08, "deceleration": 78.01, "rotation_down": 24.7, "downward_expansion": 15.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.610667, 2.609818, 2.610762, 2.595527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.586, "distance_from_trend": -0.033256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.376573, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259604, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.111051, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045802, "excess_performance": -0.238127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259604, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035267, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.776139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75800, "relative_activity": 2.473487, "balance": 0.776139, "dry_up": 0.728504, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057231, "annualized_volatility": 0.33008, "from_high_reference": -0.21875, "from_low_reference": 0.136364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.586, "fair_value_reference": 3.376573, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.019327, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.091603, "worst_return": -0.101942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025448, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041885, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.042453, "worst_return": -0.257282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042373, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.029355, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.086444, "worst_return": -0.378641, 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"trend": 2.59, "fair_value": 3.475762, "relative_strength": -14.990405, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.403251, "energy": 39.015408, "activity_lines": [ 2.674667, 2.640364, 2.596762, 2.591871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.5, "volume": 65500, "typical_volume": 44670.0, "trend": 2.589333, "fair_value": 3.459037, "relative_strength": -17.773863, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.095184, "energy": 4.777135, "activity_lines": [ 2.613333, 2.62, 2.588857, 2.586065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.52, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 40870.0, "trend": 2.586, "fair_value": 3.443957, "relative_strength": -19.945152, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.163246, "energy": 11.757907, "activity_lines": [ 2.572, 2.606909, 2.583429, 2.581591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.7, "volume": 7700, "typical_volume": 29725.0, "trend": 2.588, "fair_value": 3.428818, "relative_strength": -14.020386, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.900371, "energy": 20.170599, "activity_lines": [ 2.602667, 2.624727, 2.596095, 2.588946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.6, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 28780.0, "trend": 2.587333, "fair_value": 3.41425, "relative_strength": -17.541324, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.392897, "energy": 15.394884, "activity_lines": [ 2.601333, 2.62, 2.598571, 2.58972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.68, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 28990.0, "trend": 2.590667, "fair_value": 3.402318, "relative_strength": -14.744114, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.62964, "energy": 23.224434, "activity_lines": [ 2.629333, 2.628364, 2.608952, 2.595699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.68, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 28495.0, "trend": 2.592, "fair_value": 3.390265, "relative_strength": -13.344497, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.860206, "energy": 38.37779, "activity_lines": [ 2.656, 2.635273, 2.618857, 2.601462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 75800, "typical_volume": 30645.0, "trend": 2.586, "fair_value": 3.376573, "relative_strength": -18.111051, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.475023, "energy": 6.816931, "activity_lines": [ 2.610667, 2.609818, 2.610762, 2.595527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }