{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c245e62-14f8-4ba1-a168-61244bf8f12c", "symbol": "DEX", "name": "Dexelance S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.875, "architecture_energy": 38.871, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.674, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 5.4, "deceleration": 58.16, "rotation_down": 42.0, "downward_expansion": 76.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.134667, 2.147273, 2.225222, 2.390516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.686111, "distance_from_trend": -0.180972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.416432, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.703361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.970903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.504225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.703361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016298, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.539709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.406404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473907, "relative_activity": 1.107758, "balance": 3.406404, "dry_up": 1.688267, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117445, "annualized_volatility": 0.630538, "from_high_reference": -0.682997, "from_low_reference": 0.270895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.686111, "fair_value_reference": 7.416432, "structural_low": 1.731063, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.045662, "regime_survival": 0.952381, "best_return": 0.231859, "worst_return": -0.359411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192434, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.218186, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.018713, "worst_return": -0.370253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.266319, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.347053, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.104094, "worst_return": -0.663701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -68.016712, "energy": 47.679389, "activity_lines": [ 2.119333, 2.155818, 2.278587, 2.470487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 563565, "typical_volume": 411914.95, "trend": 2.736778, "fair_value": 7.471688, "relative_strength": -55.915487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.880718, "energy": 42.926464, "activity_lines": [ 2.112, 2.144364, 2.245524, 2.425147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 473907, "typical_volume": 427807.3, "trend": 2.686111, "fair_value": 7.416432, "relative_strength": -53.970903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.874962, "energy": 38.871162, "activity_lines": [ 2.134667, 2.147273, 2.225222, 2.390516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }