{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c2784ce-76bc-4630-a4e5-1edc8fe32e8f", "symbol": "ECL", "name": "Ecolab Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.006, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.984, "architecture_energy": 34.106, "architecture_maturity": 35.883, "architecture_confidence": 45.298, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.91, "rotation_up": 50.59, "upward_expansion": 43.41, "deceleration": 49.24, "rotation_down": 26.39, "downward_expansion": 15.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 241.746667, 240.991342, 234.494431, 233.979858 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 247.300003, "trend_reference": 234.99778, "distance_from_trend": 0.05235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 215.916365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145351, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.641974, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015376, "excess_performance": -0.158871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018288, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.431034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117, "relative_activity": 8.666667, "balance": 3.431034, "dry_up": 3.685185, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034874, "annualized_volatility": 0.210682, "from_high_reference": -0.054663, "from_low_reference": 0.17525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 234.99778, "fair_value_reference": 215.916365, "structural_low": 210.423233, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019005, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.048041, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.098645, "worst_return": -0.072186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043758, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.044351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176901, "worst_return": -0.109002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100316, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.037847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196083, "worst_return": -0.185843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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242.680004, 236.827043, 231.396402, 232.650846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 235.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.25, "trend": 233.961299, "fair_value": 214.883415, "relative_strength": -16.114389, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.924845, "energy": 40.897772, "activity_lines": [ 240.520002, 237.693096, 231.912121, 232.786005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 239.699997, "volume": 82, "typical_volume": 7.65, "trend": 234.533985, "fair_value": 215.378792, "relative_strength": -14.2278, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.286577, "energy": 23.435679, "activity_lines": [ 239.606667, 238.861279, 232.843823, 233.156244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.300003, "volume": 117, "typical_volume": 13.5, "trend": 234.99778, "fair_value": 215.916365, "relative_strength": -13.641974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.984007, "energy": 34.106357, "activity_lines": [ 241.746667, 240.991342, 234.494431, 233.979858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }