{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c3283fb-f261-4687-8cad-65f5af7fcd6c", "symbol": "2836", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core SENSEX India ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.803, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.151, "architecture_energy": 4.246, "architecture_maturity": 19.046, "architecture_confidence": 93.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.11, "rotation_up": 24.41, "upward_expansion": 26.87, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 25.26, "downward_expansion": 46.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.521334, 35.475273, 35.296286, 35.516817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.060001, "trend_reference": 36.166, "distance_from_trend": -0.002931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.231069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.095181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082443, "excess_performance": -0.048861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.108452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104540, "relative_activity": 0.799785, "balance": 1.108452, "dry_up": 1.031986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028329, "annualized_volatility": 0.173659, "from_high_reference": -0.131191, "from_low_reference": 6.075434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.166, "fair_value_reference": 38.231069, "structural_low": 33.220001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014961, "worst_return": 0.014961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.052373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.109519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052373, "worst_return": -0.052373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.130599, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.130599, "worst_return": -0.130599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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19.935237, "activity_lines": [ 35.630667, 35.261818, 35.248286, 35.818194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.279999, "volume": 76387, "typical_volume": 174145.8, "trend": 36.666, "fair_value": 38.302805, "relative_strength": 2.167408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.007903, "energy": 14.776251, "activity_lines": [ 35.565334, 35.293091, 35.230095, 35.718021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.540001, "volume": 179400, "typical_volume": 171915.8, "trend": 36.464667, "fair_value": 38.270917, "relative_strength": -1.28103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.302863, "energy": 22.567915, "activity_lines": [ 35.190667, 35.196, 35.158095, 35.58086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.700001, "volume": 179237, "typical_volume": 154705.15, "trend": 36.288, "fair_value": 38.249313, "relative_strength": -3.15223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.994447, "energy": 15.548851, "activity_lines": [ 35.296001, 35.314546, 35.210286, 35.531527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.060001, "volume": 104540, "typical_volume": 130710.15, "trend": 36.166, "fair_value": 38.231069, "relative_strength": -1.095181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.150546, "energy": 4.246119, "activity_lines": [ 35.521334, 35.475273, 35.296286, 35.516817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }