{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7c334fa7-941a-4bfa-9937-2d540d59621b", "symbol": "PCIP", "name": "PCI-PAL PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.993, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.813, "architecture_energy": 44.416, "architecture_maturity": 47.762, "architecture_confidence": 89.734, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.55, "rotation_up": 67.38, "upward_expansion": 35.95, "deceleration": 47.31, "rotation_down": 22.03, "downward_expansion": 29.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.523333, 0.489018, 0.484981, 0.494798 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.511933, "distance_from_trend": 0.172028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.536859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117612, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.406165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061947, "excess_performance": 0.010712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094062, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.767001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 693967, "relative_activity": 2.356156, "balance": 7.767001, "dry_up": 2.651542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060321, "annualized_volatility": 0.406382, "from_high_reference": -0.032258, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.511933, "fair_value_reference": 0.536859, "structural_low": 0.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.056094, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134921, "worst_return": -0.298246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.113373, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105263, "worst_return": -0.175439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177488, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.140271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007937, "worst_return": -0.270677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.123894, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.191543, "energy": 88.8081, "activity_lines": [ 0.440533, 0.457691, 0.477824, 0.49563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.435, "volume": 49728, "typical_volume": 168123.3, "trend": 0.5111, "fair_value": 0.536378, "relative_strength": -18.531036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.248418, "energy": 86.33862, "activity_lines": [ 0.436667, 0.451273, 0.471881, 0.490559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.435, "volume": 93530, "typical_volume": 161324.6, "trend": 0.508433, "fair_value": 0.535897, "relative_strength": -19.340453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.62741, "energy": 76.438631, "activity_lines": [ 0.435, 0.445945, 0.466629, 0.485649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.56, "volume": 2286648, "typical_volume": 268666.8, "trend": 0.509767, "fair_value": 0.536186, "relative_strength": 2.545862, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.972952, "energy": 10.488341, "activity_lines": [ 0.476333, 0.464436, 0.473924, 0.488976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 693967, "typical_volume": 294533.6, "trend": 0.511933, "fair_value": 0.536859, "relative_strength": 9.406165, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.812753, "energy": 44.415504, "activity_lines": [ 0.523333, 0.489018, 0.484981, 0.494798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }